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Clinton Winning Until She Loses

My post here indicated that Clinton is picking up momentum.

But it's not clear what that gets her unless she can put a huge dent in Obama's pledged-delegate lead.

I think she needs to get within 50 PD's to claim that the race has been a tie, and that the superdelegates are free to vote either way.

Especially since the Democratic nomination process crazily awards disproportionate influence to red-state caucuses.

But this is a long time from coming. And Obama still has some primaries where he can win a big victory (i.e., North Carolina).

So Ambinder is right to say:

To put it crudely, the analyst's emotional brain feels momentum for Hillary; the analyst's analytical brain can't quite figure out how Obama loses.

I think most politically aware people are feeling that as well. Hillary will keep winning, until, of course, she loses to Obama.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on March 20, 2008 (boomark / email).