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More On Puerto Rico

By Big Tent Democrat

I just spoke with some knowledgable folks on the Puerto Rico Democratic Primary (see my earlier post here and here is what I gleaned. These are not their predictions but mine based on what I heard. Warning, this is fairly uninformed bloviating by me.

First, some facts. The breakdown by Senatorial district is as follows: San Juan 6, Bayamon and Carolina 5, Ponce, Humacao, Mayaguez, Guayama and Arecibo 4.

Now, some bloviating. Turnout will likely be in the 500,000 range.

Clinton is almost certain to win and by a healthy margin. How healthy? No one really knows. She should win San Juan and Bayamon handily but will it be enough to gain the extra delegates? Not clear. Carolina will split 3-2. Ponce will be Obama's best district. Clinton could sweep the remaining districts.

More . . .

So extrapolating from this my latest guesstimate is:

San Juan - Clinton 60-40, thus winning the delegate count 4-2.

Bayamon - Clinton handily but not enough to pick up a 4th delegate. Thus Clinton, 3-2.

Carolina - Close but Clinton wins, thus winning delegates 3-2.

Humacao - Close Clinton win. 2-2 delegate split.

Ponce. Obama wins closely. 2-2 delegate split.

Mayaguez. Clinton wins closely. 2-2 delegate split.

Guayama. Close Clinton win. 2-2 delegate split.

Arecibo. Clinton win, maybe even enough for a 3-1 delegate split (a 62.5% win is needed for that), but probably not. So call it 2-2.

By my math, that means the district delegates go 20-16 Clinton, possibly 21-15.

The PLEOs split 4-3.

The At Large split 7-5.

Thus, 32-23 Clinton on the delegates, a plus 9 in the delegate count for Clinton.

This is based on Clinton winning by 57-43. My prediction today.

Clinton picks up about 75,000 in the popular vote.

Be forewarned, this is something entirely new and this prediction is worth virtually nothing. But I thought I would share it with you.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 29, 2008 (boomark / email).