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China As Mother Of All Black Swans. I Dunno.

By Dan Harris and Steve Dickinson

There seem to be two schools of thoughts regarding China's economy. One school says everything is fine, China is different, and we should expect 10% GDP growth for the foreseeable future. Hakuna Matata. Then there are those who say China's economy is a bubble and a meltdown is coming. Soon. Some of these people have been saying this for ten years, others for just the last year or so. I do not have an opinion on where China's economy is heading because am not an economist and, even if I were, it would take me hundreds, maybe even thousands, of hours of intense study and analysis to be able to formulate my own opinion, as opposed to simply cribbing the opinion of someone I trust who has actually done all of that work. But I always find well a reasoned analysis of China's economy interesting and this one, by Vitaliy Katsenelson is certainly interesting and thought provoking. Katsenelson, the Director of Research / Portfolio Manager at Investment Management Associates, sees China as bubble and he has a well-reasoned slide show to back up his contentions. The slide show is entitled, "China ? The Mother of All Black Swans." What do you think?

Full post as published by China Law Blog on February 18, 2010 (boomark / email).