Legal Commentary

16. Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, TX, Houston vs. Air Force, 12:00 pm

The opening line favored Houston by 7 points, which has fallen to a spread of 4 points at the time of this posting, surely because of the strength of the Air Force defense, which ranks 1st in the nation in passing defense, in spite of BYU's Max Hall, who zipped the Falcons for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns in their last regular season game. Air Force finished 4th in the very strong Mountain West Conference, a conference which thus far is undefeated in its bowl games. Air Force lost only 20-17 to undefeated TCU.

In other words, it is possible that Houston and its high-flying quarterback Case Keenum will have a tough time moving the ball against Air Force, which has a much better defense than an East Carolina team that beat the Cougars 38-32 at season's end.

Our call: YPPSYS ranks Houston 41st with a rating of -0.8 and Air Force 58th with a rating of -1.7, a difference of 0.9 x 9 = 8.1 points, whereas a schedule-adjusted margin of victory comparison leans in the direction of an even game. Houston averages 6.9 yards per play on offense but an astronomical 6.0 yards per play on defense, whereas the Falcons average a meager 4.8 yards per play on offense but a very strong 4.7 yards per play on defense. The result of the poor Houston offense is that the Air Force offense will have breathing room to perform. The excellent Air Force defense could stymie the Courgar offense enough to permit Air Force to win. We call it 27-26 for the Falcons.

Full post as published by LawPundit on December 28, 2009 (boomark / email).