Home -> Law Blog Directory -> Legal Commentary Blogs -> TalkLeft

Legal Commentary

: TalkLeft

"Blue Dogs" Planning To Commit Political Seppuku?

By Big Tent Democrat

Via FDL, The Hill reports that a Blue Dog staffer is saying the Blue Dogs are planning on committing political suicide:

Bruised by a tough vote on climate change legislation in June, burned by fiery town hall meetings in August, and worried about the midterm elections to be held in November 2010, Democratic centrists and vulnerable lawmakers in the party are signaling that they are not happy with Pelosi's plan. "I don't see how we get to 218," said a senior Democratic aide. "The Blue Dogs are ‘Hell nos.’ The people who voted yes [on energy] want to vote 'no' twice."

Is this true? Nah. Gene Taylor and Travis Childers and folks like that of course will vote no. There was never ever any doubt about that. But other so called "Blue Dogs" are almost certain yes votes. From the Hill article:

There are 52 Blue Dogs, more than enough to block a bill. . . . But Blue Dogs aren't unanimous. At the less conservative end, Reps. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.) and Jane Harman (D-Calif.) have voiced their support. Several others like Rep. Joe Baca (D-Calif.) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) have signed statements that they support a public option. In the middle, Blue Dog Reps. John Salazar (D-Colo.) and Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) have told hometown media outlets that they support a public option.

Anyone who dreams that Harman, Sanchez, Arcuri or Salazar will vote no on the public option just is not serious. And there are probably 10 more "Blue Dogs" like that. In the end, the REAL Blue Dogs like Taylor, Childers and others get to vote No and make a fuss and really not have any influence whatsoever. That probably works for them politically.

But there are some so called "Blue Dogs" who are flirting with political suicide. 2 come to mind - Jim Cooper (D-TN) and Jason Altmire (D-PA). Cooper is in a 25% minority district that would be 45% minority in a Dem primary. He could easily lose a Dem primary if he votes against a public option. And even if he survives, a depressed Dem turnout in a general election could doom him as well.

Altmire would likely lose a general election if he is faced with a depressed Dem turnout, which he certainly would if he votes against a public option.

At the end of the day, Blue Dogs like Cooper and Altmire are the ones whose political skin is on the line - they are the ones who really need a motivated Dem base. After all, as the Blue Dogs themselves recognize:

One Blue Dog said Pelosi's pledge to include a public option favors her liberal base in the Democratic Caucus. "They're playing to people who can't get beat by Republicans," said the lawmaker, who plans to vote against the bill if it remains in its current form.

(Emphasis supplied.) That's right. They can't. And they should use that leverage against those Blue Dogs that can be beat. The Progressive Block is playing a bit of a game here too:

Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.) co-chairwoman of the Progressive Caucus, said liberals face political consequences, too. "Most of my constituents want single-payer," Woolsey said. "If we can't even pass a public option, they could vote me out of office. We'd have primaries. What do they think happens to progressives?"

I am for primarying every single member of Congress always. But Woolsey is just blowing smoke here. But good for her. I like that the Progressive Block has learned a bit about playing the game.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 31, 2009 (boomark / email).