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The problem with those on-line weather forecasts

Say I want to know if it will rain this afternoon between 2 and 5 pm, and the link says 30% for each of the three one-hour segments. Without knowing anything about the correlation, how am I supposed to plan?

There seems to be no way of telling where the chance of rain, for the entire period between 2 and 5 pm, falls between the polar answers of 30% and 65.7%.

Perhaps I'm over-thinking this (or failing to look at the forecast for the day as a whole).

Full post as published by Start Making Sense on August 23, 2009 (boomark / email).