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An independent Kosovo

By pharrell

While I'm all for an independent Kosovo, I predict that today's events will produce a couple of unintended consequences:

1) Darfur. Kosovo's independence is the final nail in the coffin of any hope that Sudan's government will acquiesce to a robust U.N. peacekeeping mission in its troubled Darfur province. From Khartoum's perspective, Kosovar independence proves that if you let the U.N. in you'll lose your territory.

2) U.S.-Russia relations. Our relationship with Moscow is already in a deep freeze compared with the heady days of President Bush looking Putin "in the eye" and to "get a sense of his soul." Western support for Kosovar independence will only chill it further. Russia regards western support for an independent Kosovo as a direct threat to Russia's regional influence, and it'll also worry that western recognition of Kosovo will rekindle nationalist aspirations among Russia's own ethnic minorities (in the caucuses and elsewhere). Look for even less Russian support for American initiatives elsewhere in the world, probably starting with the Middle East.

3) U.S.-Somali relations. African nations are adamantly opposed to redrawing their colonial boundaries for fear that doing so would unleash massive centrifugal forces across the continent. That said, there are plenty of effectively autonomous African provinces that want recognition as independent nations, starting with Somali's rather stable Somaliland province--which has been pestering for recognition for years. How do we keep a straight face when we tell Somaliland's leaders that we're recognizing Kosovo but requiring that they remain shacked to the failed state that occupies the rest of Somali territory?

Full post as published by Harrell Blog on February 18, 2008 (boomark / email).