Legal Commentary

Matthew Dowd: Obama Will Win the Nomination

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

In doing the math on delegates, it looks highly likely that Obama will end up with a pledged delegate lead when all this is finished by June. . . . [H]ow does a party who has protested and screamed and yelled about counting all the votes, that the popular vote matters most, that an election was stolen by the Supreme Court in 2000, go against the votes and participation by voters in the Primary process???

There are two big flaws and one unproven surmise in Dowd's theory. The surmise is that Obama will lead among pledged delegates. That remains to be seen.

The first big flaw is related to that surmise - Florida and Michigan do not enter Dowd's thinking. What happens with Florida and Michigan will likely determine who leads among pledged delegates.

The second flaw is equating delegates to votes. It seems very likely that in fact Clinton will have a significant vote lead over Obama in my opinion. The logic Dowd draws cuts exactly against his argument. How can the votes be ignored? The standard response is "it is about the delegates." Well then, Dowd's argument defeats itself. I do not know how this will play out but Matthew Dowd's argument on this is not convincing to me.

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Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 11, 2008 (boomark / email).