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Bush at CPAC: Four More Years

By Jack M. Balkin

George W. Bush is now in the midst of trying to ensure his legacy. His speech this Friday at the Conservative Political Action Committee made clear that he sees the future direction of the Republican party as continuing what he regards as his signature policies: demanding lower taxes appointing conservative judges, increasing spending on defense, and fighting the war on terror, which, for Bush, means continuing the war in Iraq and the military occupation of Iraq indefinitely. Put another way, Bush's speech put down a marker that if John McCain or any other Republican wants to be elected in 2008, Bush expects it will be by a continuation of his basic policies-- a third term of the George W. Bush Administration. It is worth noting that on almost all of the issues just mentioned, John McCain appears to be following Bush.

The Republicans, now divided, are trying to put the Reagan coalition together again. Bush's advice is: do it my way. Use my Presidency and its commitments-- low taxes, a conservative judiciary, and national security in an age of terrorism as the party's mantra going forward. To know what the Republicans stand for, look at what I stand for.

Call it Reagan 2.0.

Bush wants to be remembered as a successful president, not as the President who destroyed his party's political chances and dissolved the Reagan coalition. What better way to ensure that legacy than to forge the basic commitments of the party going forward?

What is most remarkable about Bush's Presidency and the Republican Party is that so far the leading candidate, John McCain, appears to be following this script, despite Bush's obvious unpopularity.

It is true that McCain promoted campaign finance reform, but President Bush signed that law. It is true that he voted against Bush's tax cuts, but now he supports them and seeks to make them permanent. It is true that he was a founding member of the Gang of 14, but he now insists that he will appoint Justices in the mold of Bush's appointments, and there is no more forceful defender of Bush's surge and long term-strategy in Iraq. And it is true that he clearly differs from the President on waterboarding, but he has so far kept his mouth shut about it in the campaign. Indeed, one can expect that he will emphasize the continuing threat from terrorism every bit as much as Bush has.

And so we are come to this: John McCain, the maverick, is going to run the 2008 campaign as Bush's successor, without saying so directly. He, and most of the party faithful, are now George W. Bush Republicans, although they would certainly never put it that way.

One might think this amazing, given Bush's unpopularity, and the claims of many detractors that he has departed from true conservatism. Truly Bush must be a remarkable leader to have forged his party's future direction during the most unpopular moments of his presidency.

But the cause may not be so much Bush's leadership as the party's inertia and internal squabbling. Put the matter this way. Suppose the Republicans wanted to make a significant change in their basic message: How easy would it be to do so, give the party's fragmentation? Bush's issues-- permanent tax cuts, conservative judges, fighting the war on terror, staying in Iraq, are now the lowest common denominator of the party; they are what most of the party can agree on, even if they disagree about much else. No matter how unpopular Bush himself may be in the general public, Bush's issues unite the party when little else does.

And so Bush's speech at CPAC seems to make sense: four more years of my policies (as I, George W. Bush, describe them, not as they really were!) is the best the Republicans can do.

Is it?

Full post as published by Balkinization on February 10, 2008 (boomark / email).