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This Ain't No Iowa

By wt

Iowa had a lot of precincts on January 3rd. Something like 1700 of them.

Texas has 18,000 on March 4th.

[T]he Texas primary gives only a delegate catch of 67 delegates, less than, say, Minnesota.

On the same date, in the evening, precinct caucuses will be held across the state and to participate one has to have voted in the primary earlier in the day. That is where the big prize of 126 delegates will be chosen.

That scenario favors a campaign that spends the resources and has the volunteers to wage a ground game on 18,000 fronts.

18,000. That's a huge caucus.

The conventional wisdom is that the high Latino vote, and low black vote, favors Clinton.

I don't think so. Obama is doing quite well in caucus states, where the most dedicated are turning out. And those states -- Kansas, North Dakota, Iowa -- aren't exactly heavily African American.

So if Hillary is using Texas as her late-season firewall, she may want to think again.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on February 06, 2008 (boomark / email).