Legal Commentary

Political Demography: North Carolina

By Big Tent Democrat

PPP's NC poll has Obama leading by 1, 49-48. Obama could win this one in a squeaker. PPP's demographic results are fairly conservative. McCain leads among whites 60-36 (with whites comprising 76% of the vote) and Obama leading among African Americans 92-6 (comprising 21% of the vote). Obama leads among "Other" (comprising 3% of the vote), 67-25. There is some controversy about the size of the A-A turnout and the accuracy of exit polling in 2004. Since North Carolina is a state subject to the Voting Rights Act, it provides actual numbers by race. That said, African American turnout in the primary easily exceeded pollster's expectations of 20% of the total vote. In fact it was 33% of the vote in the Dem NC primary.

Obama can, indeed maybe, should, win in North Carolina.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 28, 2008 (boomark / email).