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: Begging the Question

Who better to lead them in the wilderness, in case there are moose?

By "Milbarge" and "Fitz-Hume"

I'm bemused by the several conservative commentators I've seen who are dealing with the current presidential polling by trying to convince themselves that some time in the political wilderness will be good for the GOP. I'm not sure how much stock I put in their analysis, though. These are the folks who, whenever conservatives do badly, see the solution as being more conservative. And these are the folks who put Newt Gingrich on their GOP 2012 shortlists. So, caveat emptor.

What I wonder is how long it will be before Sarah Palin fans, like Sebastian and Mrs. Haff, for example, start to suggest that John McCain losing this year will be a net positive, because (a) the next president will face a difficult economic crisis, making the presidency look like less of a prize every day; (b) lashing Palin to that sinking ship could ruin her chances of running in 2016 (assuming McCain seeks a second term); and (c) losing would give Palin four years to carp at the administration as an outsider, and sets her up nicely to run in 2012. There have been half-joking suggestions that the GOP flip the ticket ever since the convention. But under this theory, it would actually be better for Barack Obama to win this year so Palin can send McCain out to pasture.

I tend to think that there's no real reason Palin would necessarily be the front-runner in 2012, any more than Joe Liberman was the Democratic front-runner in 2004. And the loss could be devastating enough that her candidacy would look about as likely as Geraldine Ferraro in 1988 or Jack Kemp in 2000. But Palin fans might be looking for any silver lining they can find. If they are convinced that Palin is the future of the GOP, will they ultimately decide it's better for her, and the Republican Party, that McCain take one for the team in 2008?

I believe, come November 4, most Palin fans will still be on board. But a "for your own good" decision not to vote isn't outside the realm of possibility. And notice how well it allows them to brush off a landslide -- they can just p'shaw and say that Obama won by so much because Palin supporters wanted to hand Obama that crap sandwich and set her up for 2012. Clever.

Full post as published by Begging the Question on October 10, 2008 (boomark / email).