Indiana

It?s Obama?s To Lose, For Now

By Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

That is my prediction of the Presidential race with 30 days to go.  Feel free to cheer, scream, whatever.  I’ll still be here to explain my analysis.

Welcome back.

Okay, here’s my rationale.

Although the national polls have Obama with a 5-7 point lead, it’s state polls that matter because of the Electoral College.

By my count based on polling data, voter registration and the general mood of the electorate, Obama has 259 Electoral votes while John McCain has 160.  119 are up in the air.  Obama wins the Northeast, Upper Midwest and West Coasts.  McCain wins most of the South, and the Plains states and most of the Rocky Mountains.

The battle ground states are Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada.  New Hampshire and Florida notwithstanding, the path to the White House literally cuts across the center of the United States.

To win, McCain has to literally sweep Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virgina, Indiana and Missouri.  He has only four ways to get to 270 while Obama has 11 combinations.  McCain needs to win 110 out of the 119 Electoral votes.   Obama only needs 11 out of 119.

What complicates matters for McCain is all the states in play are place where George W. won.

Of course there are still two debates two go and there could always be a national emergency that puts foreign affairs back in the spotlight.  And in politics, a day is a lifetime and anything can happen.

But if the election were held today Obama would be Commander-in-Chief.

Full post as published by Indiana Barrister on October 05, 2008 (boomark / email).