Legal Commentary

M-D Polls: CO, Obama By 3, NM, McCain By 4

By Big Tent Democrat

Mason Dixon polls in Colorado and New Mexico provide a mixed bag of news. In Colorado, M-D shows Obama with a 3 point lead, 46-43 and in New Mexico, it shows McCain with a 4 point lead. Earlier I posted on the M-D poll showing McCain with a 7 point lead in Nevada. An earlier Q poll had McCain ahead in Colorado.

The Obama electoral map seems to show Virginia (13 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs), Colorado (9 EVs), New Mexico (5 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs) as top hopes for shifting red states to blue states. Obama is also competitive in Ohio (20 EVs) (some would argue he is competitive in Florida (27 EVs), I am not one of those people.) McCain is likely aiming at Michigan (17 EVs) and New Hampshire (4 EVs) as pickup opportunities. More . . .

Here is the 2004 map, when Bush won over Kerry by 286 electoral votes to 252 electoral votes. So, at the minimum, Obama is looking to pick up 18 electoral votes over Kerry's total. Assuming he holds the Kerry states (including New Hampshire and Michigan), Obama seems to have Iowa locked up for 7 electoral votes and would be looking for another 11 electoral votes to win the Presidency. Ohio of course would do it. Virginia would do it. A combination of Colorado and New Mexico or Nevada would do it.

Colorado is much closer than I expected. Virginia is a tossup. Ohio is close. This explains why this contest is considered to be very close now.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 24, 2008 (boomark / email).