Legal Commentary

SUSA IN Poll: McCain By 6

By Big Tent Democrat

Indiana stays Republican according to SUSA's Indiana poll:

In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%[.] . . . Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.

SUSA's demo breakdowns are always the most interesting part. Let's look at them on the flip.

Whites 53-41 (92% of the electorate) for McCain. A-As (6% of the electorate) 77-19 for Obama. Let's make it 95-5 for Obama, that adds a point for Obama but he loses at least a point among undecided whites. Obama wins Dems 77-19, McCain wins Republicans 82-12.

Let's compare this to Kerry's results in 2004 -- Kerry won A-As (7% of the electorate) 92-8, lost whites (93% of the electorate) 65-34.

So here we are, believing Obama can do 15 points better than Kerry among whites and still would lose Indiana by 5.

Here's the bottom line, Obama can not win Indiana. I do not care what any poll says. I think Obama must know this. Therefore, no Bayh.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 19, 2008 (boomark / email).