Legal Commentary

SUSA MO Poll: McCain By 5

By Big Tent Democrat

I love Survey USA's poll reporting. They provide you the demographic breakdown to REALLY analyze their poll. In today's Missouri poll, SUSA has MCCain up 5. But getting into the numbers is always the fun part of a SUSA poll.

Here are the basics, McCain wins men 53-41 (49% of the electorate), Obama wins women 48-45 (51%). McCain wins whites 53-39, with 7% undecided (86% of the electorate), Obama wins A-As 88-10 (11% of the electorate.

More . . .

Let's compare the turnout model with 2004. In 2004, women were 53% of the electorate in Missouri (Bush won women by 9 and men by 5, different than you would expect) and whites were 89% of the electorate (Bush won them 57-42), African Americans 8% (Kerry won them 90-10.)

What's that tell us? With a 3% gain in A-A as a percentage of the electorate, Obama still does not win in Missouri, even if we give McCain 0 A-A votes. Obama needs to do better with older white women, which Kerry dominated in 2004 and McCain dominates in 2008. Now who could help him with that segment you think?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 02, 2008 (boomark / email).