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2012 Election

I know the 2008 election hasn't happened yet, but it's about time we start moving forward with this blog's coverage. All the way to the next Presidential election in 2012.

Pablano at FiveThirtyEight.com, an incredibly good site run by a guy (tending left, but eminently fair) who works at Baseball Prospectus, notes what the Electoral College will look like in 2012.

- Texas gains three electoral votes.
- Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and Utah each gain one electoral vote.

- Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania each lose one electoral vote.
- Ohio loses two electoral votes.

If you look at the 2004 electoral map, that's a net gain of 5 votes for Bush's red states.

Now, Obama will shake all that up. Obama may take Nevada or Georgia (though I doubt it), or more than make up for those losses by winning in Bush's red states (more likely).

But in 2012, if a President Obama is facing re-election, there's a chance he will have do to better in 2012 than he did in 2008 to win 270 electoral votes.

And that's if the population trends stop at 2007 levels. Presumably, red states will keep making babies at a higher rate, and blue states will keep losing people. Unless these states swing into the reliably blue category, it's going to get harder and harder for Democrats to win the Presidency.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on July 03, 2008 (boomark / email).