Legal Commentary

National Numbers and Trends for the Hispanic/Latino Vote

By Jeralyn

Via William Arnone's Updated Key State Analysis which I reprinted with his permission in March:

Hispanic/Latino voters comprise 6% of the voting population nationwide. This represents an increase of 2% since 2000. With 13% of the total population and 17% of the population under age 18, Hispanics/Latinos are potentially the fastest-growing segment of the electorate.

In 2004, the Democratic ticket nationwide won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 11%. This was a shift to the Republican Party of 25 percentage points from the Democratic Presidential ticket’s margin of 36% in 2000. In 1996, the Democratic ticket nationwide won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 51%.

More...

The 2004 Presidential election represented a continuing trend of Hispanic/Latino voters away from the Democratic ticket. The 44% share of the Hispanic/Latino vote achieved by the 2004 Republican Presidential ticket surpassed the previous high of 37% for the 1984 Republican Presidential ticket (Reagan-Bush).

Although subsequent revisions of the Edison/Mitofsky National Elections Pool (NEP) exit poll reduced this share to 42%, the Republican Presidential ticket in 2004 won a greater share of the Hispanic/Latino vote than any other Republican Presidential ticket since the advent of Presidential election exit polls in 1972.

In the 2006 Congressional elections, Hispanic/Latino voters voted for Democratic candidates by a 19% margin. This represented a shift to the Democratic Party of 8 percentage points from 2004.

There is diversity among Hispanic/Latino voters nationwide. About two-thirds have roots in Mexico. The remainder includes voters with roots in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and other parts of Latin and South America.

One conclusion: The Democrats can't take the Hispanic/Latino vote for granted. They are one of four key groups -- the others being older voters, women voters and Catholics -- that have trended towards Republicans in recent years.

Hillary does better with all four of these groups. It's one more factor the superdelegates should consider this week.

Also check out Mr. Arnone's April analysis (pdf)of the electoral map and the battleground states (summarized here.)

Update: BackfromOhio writes Pew Hispanic.Org has a report on Latinos in the 2008 Election that says Hispanics are now 9% of eligible voters and estimates they will be 6.5% of the voters in the Fall.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on June 01, 2008 (boomark / email).