Legal Commentary

New Puerto Rico Poll: Clinton By 13, 19 Among LVs

By Big Tent Democrat

A new Univision/El Vocero poll of Puerto Rico has Clinton ahead by 13 over Obama, 51-38 (59-40 among LVs). However, the reporting of the results makes it somewhat difficult to interpret what it all means. For example, the poll says it found that 50% will not vote. Now, that sounds bad for Puerto Rico (where turnout is usually over 80% of the electorate), but imagine 50% turnout in the states in a primary. That is remarkable. I would add that that would project that a million voters will vote on Sunday.

If Clinton wins by 13, and a million voters come out, then Clinton would gain 130,000 in the popular vote contest. Not a bad day at all for her.

The was a Greenberg poll done in the way Puerto Rico polls generally are done - in face to face at home interviews. the likely voter numbers are actually 59-40 for Clinton. This is a meaningful poll.

By Big Tent Democrat

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 28, 2008 (boomark / email).