Legal Commentary

Zogby Predicting Obama Wins In Indiana and NC

By Big Tent Democrat

John Zogby stands alone right now in predicting a Barack Obama 2 point win in Indiana. The key finding:

Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.

Projecting undecideds, by my math, Zogby is projecting Clinton to win whites 55-44 (83% of the vote) and Obama to win African Americans (17% of the vote) by 90-9. This would be a terrific outcome for Obama and would win the race. Suffice it to say that Zogby is a charlatan and his results should be only be used to determine what Zogby the pundit is about. I think he is hoping for a close race in Indiana to let him claim some prescience. I believe he will have Clinton up narrowly on Tuesday. In North Carolina, Zogby has Obama up 10, which sounds about right to me. The key NC finding:

Clinton leads among whites, 56% to 33%, while Obama leads among African Americans, 78% to 6%. African American voters in North Carolina comprise about one-third of the electorate.

In NC, it seems fair to expect a rough 2-1 split among whites in favor of Clinton and a 90-10 split among African Americans in favor of Obama. This leads to about a 5 point Obama win, assuming whites are two thirds of the electorate and African Americans one third.

By Big Tent Democrat

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 04, 2008 (boomark / email).