Legal Commentary

"The Remaining Vote in Pennsylvania Appears to Be Overwhelmingly for Biden/The president leads by nearly 700,000 votes, but there are 1.4 million absentee votes outstanding."

So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according to the Secretary of State?s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters. If Mr. Biden won the more than 1.4 million absentee votes by such a large margin, he would net around 800,000 votes ? enough to overcome his deficit statewide.

Biden needs to get 700,000+ more votes than Trump out of a pile of 1.4 million ballots.  If 78% of the uncounted ballots are for Biden, he can close the gap. But keep doing math. If the Biden percentage is 75%, it's dead even (with those big round numbers). Fall below 75% and Trump wins. 

ADDED: Does "1.4 million absentee votes outstanding" refer to the number of ballots that have been received within the required time frame or the number that were sent out but not yet included in the count? If the latter, we don't know that there will ultimately be what I called "a pile of 1.4 million ballots." Not everyone who received an absentee ballot will have returned it. And not all returned ballots will be received in time and properly filled out. So I doubt that 1.4 million is the right number to use in this calculation.

Full post as published by Althouse on November 04, 2020 (boomark / email).