Federal Judiciary

Four Middle Eastern Upheavals

After decades of stasis, the Middle East is in uproar. Too much is happening to focus on a single place, so here's a review of developments in four key countries.

#ad#Perhaps Obama will be lucky and Qaddafi will collapse quickly. But no one knows who the rebels are and the open-ended effort could well become protracted, costly, terroristic, and politically unpopular. If so, Libya risks becoming Obama's Iraq -- or worse, if Islamists take over the country.

Obama wants the United States to be 'one of the partners among many' in Libya and wishes he were president of China, suggesting that this war offers a grand experiment for the U.S. government to pretend it is Belgium. I admit to some sympathy for this approach; in 1997, I complained that, time and again, because Washington rushed in and took responsibility for maintaining order, 'The American adult rendered others child-like.' I urged Washington to show more reserve, letting others come to us and request assistance.

That's what Obama, in his clumsy and ill-prepared way, has done. The results will surely influence future U.S. policy.

Two facts underpin this collusion: Egypt has been ruled by the military since a 1952 coup d'état; and the so-called Free Officers who carried off that coup themselves had close ties to the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The spirit of Tahrir Square was real and may eventually prevail; but for now, it's business as usual in Egypt, with the government continuing Mubarak's familiar quasi-Islamist line.

As 2011's winds of change reached Syria, crowds yelling Suriya, hurriya ('Syria, freedom') lost their fear of the baby dictator. Panicked, Bashar oscillated between violence and appeasement. If the Assad dynasty meets its demise, this will have potentially ruinous consequences for the minority Alawi community of which it is a part. Sunni Islamists who have the inside track to succeed the Assads will probably withdraw Syria from the Iranian-led 'resistance' bloc, meaning that a change of regime will have mixed implications for the West, and for Israel especially.

His incompetent handling of protests has alienated even the military leadership (from which he comes) and his own Hashid tribe, suggesting he will leave power with little control over what follows him. Given the country's tribal structure, the widespread distribution of arms, the Sunni–Shia divide, the mountainous terrain, and impending drought, an Islamist-tinged anarchy (as in Afghanistan) looms as a likely outcome.

In Libya, Syria, and Yemen -- but less so in Egypt -- Islamists have opportunities to significantly expand their power. How well will Obama, so adamant about 'mutual respect' in U.S. relations with Muslims, protect Western interests against this threat?

--- Daniel Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. © 2011 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on March 29, 2011 (boomark / email).