Legal Commentary

Which, if any, groups favored Hillary Clinton in South Carolina?

By Ann Althouse

1. Hillary Clinton did not win a majority or even a plurality of white voters. (Edwards won a plurality of 40%.) She did win a plurality ? 42% ? of the white female voters (but Barack Obama still won 22% of them). Edwards won a plurality of the white males ? 44% (but Obama still got 27% of them). Clinton only got 20% of the black women.

2. Hillary Clinton did not win a majority or even a plurality of the over 60 white vote. (She shared equally with John Edwards, each receiving 42%.) Barack Obama received a majority of the white vote in the 18-29 category.

3. Barack Obama received a majority of the male vote and a majority of the female vote ? with exactly the same percentage, 54%.

4. Barack Obama received a majority of the vote in every age category except over 60 ? and he won a plurality of the over 60 vote. Only by isolating the over 65 vote do you see a plurality for Clinton (40% over 32%).

5. Barack Obama received a majority or plurality of votes at all education levels, at all degrees of religiosity, at all levels of voting experience, in all regions, at all income levels, and in urban/suburban/rural areas.

6. Barack Obama received a majority among voters who considered each of the 3 main issues ? health care, the economy, Iraq ? the most important.

7. Barack Obama received a majority from voters who were married and who were unmarried, who placed issues first and who placed character first, who thought the economy was good and who thought it was bad.

8. Barack Obama received a majority from voters who called themselves liberals and who called themselves moderates and a plurality from those who called themselves conservatives.

9. Hillary won a clear majority ? 84% ? among voters who put "experience" first when asked to rank 4 qualities. Obama won for 2 of the other qualities ? "can bring about change" and "electability" ? and Edwards won for "cares about people."

10. Hillary Clinton won a plurality from voters who said Americans aren't ready to elect a black President (and a majority of those who said "definitely not ready," though Obama even got 9% of those).

What can Hillary do? Work hard on getting out the elderly vote? Harp on her experience some more? Scare voters about the unelectability of a black man? Hope the other states are not like South Carolina?

Full post as published by Althouse on January 27, 2008 (boomark / email).