Legal Commentary

Weather Is Not Climate

By Jonathan H. Adler

What does the ?snowpocalypse? tell us about the likelihood of climate change?  Nothing.  As Roger Pielke Jr. explains:

What happens in the weather this week or next tells us absolutely nothing about the role of humans in influencing the climate system. It is unjustifiable to claim that a cold snap or heavy snow disproves or even casts doubts predictions of long-term climate change. It is equally unjustifiable to say that a cold snap or heavy snow in any way offers empirical support for predictions of long-term climate change. This goes for all weather events.

Further, it is professionally irresponsible for scientists to claim that some observed weather is ?consistent with? long-term predictions of climate change. Any and all weather fits this criteria. Similarly, any and all weather is also ?consistent with? failing predictions of long-term climate change. The ?consistent with? canard is purposely misleading.

Knowledge of climate requires long-term records ? on the time scale of a decade and longer. Don?t look to the weather to learn about climate, unless you have a long time to watch. Using the weather to score cheap political points in the climate debate appears to be a tactical area of agreement among those who otherwise disagree about climate change.

Full post as published by The Volokh Conspiracy on February 11, 2010 (boomark / email).