Legal Commentary

Tightening? Uh, No

By Big Tent Democrat

Quick message to Joe Scarborough of MSNBC - who is screaming about "tightening" in the state polls - when Obama increases his lead in the Mason Dixon polls - that does not signal tightening.

For example, Scarborough keeps talking about "tightening" in Nevada, based on a 10/28-9 Mason-Dixon poll showing Obama up 4, 47-43. For Joe's information, last month's M-D 10/8-9 Nevada poll had Obama leading in Nevada by just 2, 47-45. Similarly in Virginia, Joe is screaming about tightening based on a 10/29-30 M-D poll showing Obama by 3, 47-44. The problem for Joe is M-D's 10/20-21 VA poll, for NBC no less, had Obama up 2, 47-45. What about Pennsylvania? Is it tightening according to Mason Dixon - MSNBC's preferred pollster? No. In M-D's September 16-18 PA poll, Obama only led by 2, 46-44. In M-D's 10/27-8 PA poll, Obama leads by 4, 47-43. How about Florida? Is it tightening? MSNBC is touting the M-D FL 10/29-30 poll that has Obama by 2, 47-45. A week before, for NBC (did you miss that poll Joe?) Mason Dixon had McCain ahead in Florida by 1, 46-45. Tightening? Uh, no.

Bottom line, there is no tightening and you should not pay attention to the Scarboroughs of the world. He really knows nothing about polling.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 02, 2008 (boomark / email).