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Stros 2008 Season Review, Part Three

By Tom Kirkendall

Inasmuch as Major League Baseball is taking a break for the All-Star break, I decided to post the third part of five periodic reviews of the Stros' 2008 season a game or so early (previous parts for the 2008 season are here). Although they were able to keep it together a bit longer than the 2007 club, the 2008 Stros (44-51) fell apart during the third 20% segment of the 2008 season.

The Stros went 12-19 during the third segment and spiced that effort by being trounced 10-0 on this past Friday evening by the team with the worst record in MLB, the Washington Nationals (36-50). That's a far worse record than the club had during either the first fifth or second fifth of the season, but consistent with my pre-season forecast that this Stros club looked like a 75-win outfit. The Stros are in in last place in the National League Central, 13 games behind the Cubs (57-38) and 8.5 games out of the National League Wildcard Playoff berth. Given that the Cubs net RCAA/RSAA total is 113 (43 RCAA/70 RSAA) and the Stros is -42 (-41 RCAA/-1 RSAA), it's surprising that the Stros aren't even further behind.

Nevertheless, the first 60% of the season has been an instructive lesson in how risky it is to make conclusions about baseball based on small sample sizes. The Stros stumbled out of the gate with 12 losses in their first 18 games and looked completely lost. Then, stellar 1B Lance Berkman (53 RCAA/.443 OBA/.653 SLG/ 1.097 OPS) warmed up and the club bounced back with a 23-10 stretch that put them seven games above .500 at 30-23 and just one game behind the Cubs on May 27, prompting the mostly clueless Chronicle sports reporters (Zac Levine excepted) to babble about a possible playoff berth. However, since then, the Stros have lost 29 of 43 games to drop into the NL Central cellar and decisively expunge any theoretical playoff aspirations. The Stros now have to win 31 of their final 67 games just to equal my 75 win pre-season prediction. That is by no means a sure thing.

The Stros' main problem continues to be absolutely atrocious hitting outside of Berkman, LF Carlos Lee (14 RCAA/.351 OPS/.547 SLG/.898 OPS) and 3B Ty Wigginton (3 RCAA/.368 OBA/.470 SLG/.839 OPS). Inasmuch as Berkman, Lee and Wigginton have together generated 70 more runs (mostly due to Berkman) than three National League-average hitters would have produced using the same number of outs, the rest of the Stros hitters have generated an astounding 110 fewer runs than the same number of merely National League-average hitters would have produced using the same number of outs.

The Stros resulting -41 RCAA ranks 13th among the 16 National League clubs and is better than only the truly pathetic Giants, Diamondbacks and Nationals. But for Berkman having one of the best seasons of any hitter in Stros history (he has a legitimate chance of breaking into Jeff Bagwell's top four Stros all-time seasons -- 1994, 96, 97 & 99), this Stros club would be competing for the distinction of the worst hitting team in the club's history. As it is, the 2008 club will likely end up being one of the five worst hitting teams in franchise history.

Meanwhile, the pitching that had been overachieving through the first 40% of the season came back down to earth during the third segment of the season. The Stros staff is now an National League average staff, giving up one more run through 95 games than a National League-average staff would have given up in the same number of innings. That is 9th among the 16 National League clubs.

Although staff ace Roy Oswalt started to rebound (0 RSAA/ 4.56 ERA), he strained a hip muscle a couple of weeks ago and appears headed to the disabled list after lasting only one inning in the aforementioned 10-0 debacle against the Nationals. Also, staff ace-to-date Wandy Rodriguez is trending back to his career numbers (10 RSAA/3.23 ERA), while primary relievers Jose Valverde (3 RSAA/3.89 ERA) and Doug Brocail (4 RSAA/3.86 ERA) are merely slightly above National League-average in their performance.

Nevetheless, this club's main problem is not the pitching staff, which is far improved over the 2007 club and does not have a member whose RSAA is anywhere near the horrid RCAA's posted by "hitters" such as CF Michael Bourn (-24), RF Hunter Pence (-14), C J.R. Towles (-14) and the always-awful Brad Ausmus (-13). With the exception of Berkman, Lee, Wigginton and possibly Pence, I'd bet that P Brandon Backe (1 RCAA/.406 OBA/.517/.918 OPS) would hit better over a course of a full season than any of the other Stros hitters. That's a sad reflection of the deterioration in hitting that has bedeviled the Stros throughout the latter stages of the Biggio-Bagwell era.

In part two, I reviewed what the Stros should do for the rest of this season to salvage it, so I won't repeat that here. However, what is more distressing than the club's performance this season is the apparent cluelessness of the club's management on what to do about it. Both owner Drayton McLane and General Manager Ed Wade have been quoted in the mainstream media in recent days saying that the club "has not given up" and that they believe that the team "has what it takes" to make a playoff drive in the final 67 games.

Now, such statements are regularly made in MLB for public relations purposes and shouldn't be taken seriously. Neither McLane nor Wade really thinks that this team has any meaningful chance to contend for a playoff spot. However, the management of the team is still odd. Apart from the questionable handling of the Chacon affair, CF Bourn ought to be playing either on the big league club or in AAA learning how to hit line drives and hard grounders. Sitting him on the Stros bench makes absolutely no sense while allowing a washed up Darin Erstad to take valuable playing time away from a younger and potentially better player. Similarly, why on earth are the Stros wasting innings on the hopeless Ausmus while Towles wastes away on the bench? If the club is not going to play Towles regularly, then send him back to Round Rock where he can develop his skills.

Finally, the club's handling of Oswalt's recent injury reflects desperation. Oswalt has battled the hip muscle injury for several seasons. The reoccurrence of the injury a couple of weeks before the All-Star break clearly called for the club to put its most valuable pitching asset on the shelf through the break to allow him three solid weeks of recovery time. Instead, the club inexplicably pushed Oswalt to pitch last Friday night's meaningless debacle, which resulted in a not surprising aggravation of the injury. Thus, not only did management eviscerate Oswalt's trade value, they also contributed to the risk that Oswalt's injury will become seriously chronic in nature. What on earth was Stros management thinking?

Oh well. At least the club appears to be doing a good job of signing its picks from this year's draft, which is what the Stros need to do to start the long process of restocking its fallow farm system. But at some point, the club's management needs to level with its fan base about it's commitment to development of players in the club's system rather than attempting to patch something together from season to season. It's going to take awhile, but it's a heck of a lot more fulfilling than trying to sell snake oil.

The Stros take on their NL Central opponents after the All-Star break, first the Cubs and Pirates (44-50) at home, then on the road at the Brewers (52-43) and then back home to play the Reds (46-50) to close out the month. That will take the Stros up to the trade deadline, where they should be sellers. But will anyone be buying?

The 2008 season statistics for the Stros are below (through 93 games; I'll update through 95 games later), courtesy of Lee Sinins' sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros' 40 man roster is here with links to each individual player's statistics:

 

 

Full post as published by Houston's Clear Thinkers on July 15, 2008 (boomark / email).