Legal Commentary

The Straw Grasp

By Big Tent Democrat

Now that McCain's "tightening" meme has pretty much slipped away, some Republican leaners are grasping at some new straw. Glenn Reynolds writes:

GOP halves Democratic lead in generic ballot. "Democrats now lead by four points, their slimmest lead in more than three years. A week ago, according to the George Washington University poll, their advantage was eight points." Mickey Kaus thinks he knows why.

Kaus' theory? When Obama goes up, Congressional Dems go down. The problem with the theory? It is nonsense. The poll relied upon for claiming the Dem generic lead is the Battleground poll - which simply does not change. From The Hill article relied upon by Kaus:

While the poll could give Republican candidates hope in a tough political landscape for the GOP, it had only mixed news for the party’s presidential candidate, John McCain. The Arizona senator remained three points behind Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

Yep. Battleground - the poll that has had it a 3 point race for a month. But when it seems clear that Obama is going to win, Dem haters like Kaus need to grasp at straw. The fact is the larger the Obama lead in a poll, the larger the generic Dem congressional lead. Dems will get big gains in the House and Senate this year. There is NO DOUBT about that. There is more doubt about Obama winning than that.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 31, 2008 (boomark / email).