Legal Commentary

Strategies for Neutering Al Qaida in Yemen

By Jeralyn

After reading countless news articles and think tank reports on al Qaida Arab Peninsula (AQAP), its leaders, its presence in Yemen and merger with the Saudi al Qaida's, I think this November 2009 analysis by the Human Security Group Project is most on target.

AQAP can't survive in Yemen without the support of the tribes. Lots of other groups have been treating the rebel insurgents and AQAP as one. This group doesn't and its report presents strategies to keep the rebels and tribes from joining up with AQAP.

Western policy should focus on degrading AQAP’s leadership and breaking this developing tribal nexus in a timely fashion without becoming too overtly involved.

U.S. threats to go after al Qaida are unlikely to do the trick. The economic and other problems in Yemen must also be addressed -- by them. [More...]

Two elements of any successful strategy will be the targeting of key AQAP leaders, and addressing the grievances of average Yemenis, particularly the tribes, that give al-Qa’ida groups oxygen. In terms of targeting AQAP leaders, it will be important for the West to work through Yemeni security forces.

Overt Western involvement in targeting AQAP’s leadership risks fuelling the anti-Western sentiment amongst the tribes that would be far more likely to strengthen, rather than weaken, their support for AQAP.

It's not an insurmountable task. It just has to be done smartly. It's not smart for the U.S. to threaten to go to Yemen and take out al Qaida. President Obama's statement today:

[W]e will not rest until we find all who were involved and hold them accountable."

is not the best or most productive answer.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on December 28, 2009 (boomark / email).