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Ras Poll: Clinton Leads In OH By 8, TX By 3

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Rasmussen sez:

OHIO

Clinton 48 (51)
Obama 40 (37)

TEXAS

Clinton 47 (54)
Obama 44 (38)

This is the new state of the race. Clearly Clinton is holding better in Ohio than Texas. She needs both. Some interesting findings on the flip.

In Texas:

Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by five points among men. . . . In a pattern seen elsewhere, Clinton leads among White voters and Latino voters while trailing badly among African-Americans. Clinton leads by big margins among those 65 and older while Obama does better among voters under 65. Clinton leads among Democrats while Obama leads among Independent voters likely to take part in the Primary.

We seem to be back in the old demographic mode from before. One of the most curious things about this result from Rasmussen is that while Clinton leads among women by 10 and only trails among men by 5, her overall lead is only 3. This means Ras projects more men than women in the Texas contest. This would be the FIRST time that has happened. In the 2004 GENERAL ELECTION, women were 55% of the TOTAL electorate. And yet Ras expects that in a Democratic primary, women will be less than 50% of the turnout. Let me put it bluntly, I do not believe it. If the gender breakdowns among Clinton and Obama are accurate, then imo, Ras is understating Clinton's lead.

In Ohio, Ras sez:

Clinton leads by twenty points among women. That’s little changed from a week ago. However, in the previous poll, Clinton also held the advantage among men. Now, she trails Obama by ten among male voters. Clinton does better among lower-income voters and older voters.

Yet again, Ras is predicting more MALE voters than women voters in Ohio. Again in the 2004 General Election, women were 53% of the electorate. So Ras is AGAIN predicting less women voters in a Democratic primary than in a general election.

Clinton may be doing better than we think.

NOTE - I flunked math in college.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 22, 2008 (boomark / email).