Legal Commentary

The Polls - 9/25

By Big Tent Democrat

The DKos/R2000 poll (9/22-24) has Obama up 6, 49-43. NBC/WSJ poll (9/19-22) has Obama by 2, 48-46. Fox/Opinion Dynamics (9/22-23) has Obama by 6, 45-39.

Gallup Tracker 9/21-23 has Obama by 3. Hotline 9/21-23 has Obama by 6, 48-42. LATimes/Bloomberg 9/19-22) has Obama by 4, 49-45.

ABC/WaPo 9/19-22) has Obama up 9, 52-43. CNN/Opinion Research 9/19-21 has Obama up 4, 51-47. [More...] Ipsos/McClatchey (9/18-22) has Obama up 1, 44-43. Ras (9/22-24) has Obama up 3, 49-46. That is 10 polls that show Obama leading from anywhere between 1 and 9 points. There is one poll that has McCain leading, the Battleground poll, which has McCain up 1, 48-47.

If you average out all of these results, they have Obama ahead by 4. BTW, the reason I do not focus on state polls yet is first, most of them come from what I consider fairly unreliable outfits. Second, I think that there is a lag in showing national trends into state polls. And third, I think that there are not enough of them in each state to give us a meaningful feeling about them. Starting in mid-October, I'll start following them more closely.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on September 25, 2008 (boomark / email).