Legal Commentary

The Polls - 11/2

By Big Tent Democrat

Both in 2000 and 2004, the popular vote loser won or came close to winning the Presidency. In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote and then the Supreme Court stole Florida on his behalf (to be fair, the Republican House of Representatives would have stolen it for him as well.) In 2004, John Kerry would have won the Presidency with a 120,000 vote shift in Ohio despite losing the popular vote by 2.5% (over 3 million votes.) So could it happen this year? In a word, no.

Barring a miracle, Barack Obama will win the popular vote on Tuesday. So how could John McCain win the Presidency without winning the popular vote? Winning squeakers in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana? He still loses the Presidency even if he does all that. Here's the thing - McCain will have to win in Pennsylvania or Colorado and Nevada as well to win the Presidency. And if McCain wins in all those states, he will win the popular vote.

The polls show Obama winning by between 5 and 13 points. While it is true that the Presidential Election is 50 different elections it is also true that if he wins the aggregate election, John McCain will win the popular vote.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 02, 2008 (boomark / email).