Legal Commentary

The Political Weakness of the 2012 Republican Field

By Jim Lindgren

Nate Silver has a wonderful post comparing the 2012 Republican field to Republican and Democratic fields since 1999. The bad news for Republicans is that this year there are no candidates who enjoy double-digit net positive opinions among the electorate. Huckabee leads the field with 40% positive and 32% negative (a net positive of 8%). Gingrich (-14) and Palin (-23) bring up the rear.

In recent prior election cycles (2000, 2004, 2008), at this point before the elections each party had at least two candidates with double-digit positives ? but not the Republicans this year.

Ironically, I think that several possible Republican candidates have views and talents that might make them better than average presidents, but I see no one who as yet looks to be a better than average candidate to win the presidency.

Among those not in Silver?s analysis, I like Chris Christie, but he has been very emphatic that he is not a candidate: ?Short of suicide, I don?t really know what I?d have to do to convince you people that I?m not running. I?m not running!?

If the economy continues to improve (as I think it will), I think that President Obama will be hard to beat.

Full post as published by The Volokh Conspiracy on February 15, 2011 (boomark / email).