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Why Obama ended up winning the first debate

By Jack M. Balkin

Actually, I thought the debate was pretty much a draw. There was hardly anything memorable in it, although it was truly a breath of fresh air to listen to a debate between two presidential candidates who focus on issues and solutions, and seem to know more or less what they are talking about. But by now I've learned that I often respond to different things than many other voters. Who I personally think won the debate doesn't really matter. What matters is what other people think. And apparently, most people polled seem to think that Obama clearly won.

Aside from all this, Obama won the debate for two reasons.

First, he's ahead. Because he's ahead, he doesn't have to win outright to succeed; McCain has to produce a game-changing moment. McCain did not do that. Indeed, if anything McCain seemed to be spending much of his time annoyed at Obama, refusing to look at him or confront him directly, trying as much as possible to avoid blowing up in anger. He succeeded at that. What he did not succeed at was changing the momentum of the race. Hence Obama wins.

Second, Obama won the debate because this election has largely been a referendum on whether the Democrats and Obama are up to leading the country after the failures of the last eight years. Obama is not a known quantity to many voters. They need to establish some comfort level with him; they need to believe that he is sufficiently cool headed in a crisis that he won't do something rash or foolish. In this sense, Obama is in much the same position as Ronald Reagan was in 1980. Carter tried to portray Reagan as loony, out of touch and dangerous. He succeeded for a time. However, Reagan demonstrated by the end of the campaign, and particularly at the presidential debates, that even if he wasn't as well prepared as Carter on some issues, he was not frightening at all. Once Reagan did this, he began to break away from what had previously been a very close race.

I think something like this has been happening in the past week or so, as the economy has dominated public concerns (an area in which McCain admits he is not very well-versed and in which Obama is far more trusted). The effect of the first debate was to portray Obama as cool headed, thoughtful, prepared, and able to think well on his feet. That is to say, he came across as competent and reasonable, even if you disagreed with what he said substantively.

In contrast, McCain's antics in the past week or so have tended to paint him as increasingly less cool headed, more apt to panic in a crisis and far more of a high stakes gambler.

Look at his recent behavior: His choice of Sarah Palin who he barely knew; his statement that the economy is fundamentally sound followed by a quick 180 turn to the assertion that the economy was headed for a great depression if we do not act immediately; his suspension of his campaign (which turned out not to be very much of a suspension at all); his attempt to get Obama to cancel the first debate which increasingly seemed like a desperate stunt; his interference (whether intentional or not) with negotiations in Washington; and his quick about-face and his agreement to debate after it became clear that no deal on the bailout was forthcoming and that he would be blamed if he didn't show up to debate. All of these actions make McCain look at turns incautious, confused, unprincipled, panicked and incompetent.

The effect of the last week, and Obama's cool demeanor (the New York Times even ran an egregious story complaining that Obama was too cool and level headed) all helped to portray Obama as prepared for the Oval Office. McCain's basic goal in the campaign has been to prove that Obama was dangerous, that he was a risky bet, that he was not reliable. In the past week, however, McCain has systematically undermined this strategy; he has unwittingly done as much as any one could to portray Obama as a safe bet, at least as safe as McCain himself. It is an astonishing display of strategic incompetence, one for which Obama will probably forever be greatful. Because McCain has, against his own interests, repeatedly made Obama appear steady, reliable, and prepared for the Presidency, Obama won the first debate.

Full post as published by Balkinization on September 27, 2008 (boomark / email).