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Why Did Obama Do Worse in N.C. Than Virginia?

By Jeralyn

TwinMom at MyDD has an interesting diary up comparing Obama's win in Virginia to North Carolina:

Obama won Virginia by 28 points and North Carolina by 14. What's different, given the similar voter demographics?

Using exit poll data here and here from the NY Times, TwinMom shows the percentages of white men, white women, black men and black women voters were very similar but the results were not:

• In Virginia, Obama won 67% of White Men. In North Carolina only 40%

• In Virginia, Obama won 45% of White Women , in North Carolina only 33%.

• In Virginia, Obama won 93% of Black Men and 85% of Black Women. In North Carolina, he won 91% of Black Men and Black Women.

The conclusion: [More...]

Obama lost ground among all but black women:

White Men (-27)
White Women (-12)
Black Men (-2)
Black Women (+6)

What to take from it:

In fact, Obama's showing in NC last night is CONSIDERABLY weaker than his showing in neighboring VA 3 months ago. In my opinion, we should all be asking WHY and also wondering about what this decline in numbers means in terms of the GE?

NC and VA make an excellent, nearly ideal side-by-side comparison in terms of demographics. These 2 contests clearly show a significant increase in support for Sen Clinton and a marked decrease in support for Sen Obama.

The voting demographics:

White male: VA 28%, N.C. 27%
White female: Va 35%, N.C. 35%
Black Male: VA 13%, N.C. 13%
Black Female: VA 17%, N.C. 20%.

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Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 07, 2008 (boomark / email).