Legal Commentary

Why Obama Is A Shoo In, And How He Can Win A Landslide

By Big Tent Democrat

The latest CBS News poll (PDF) tells you all you need to know as to why Obama is a shoo in in this election and what he needs to do to win a landslide. The poll has Obama leading 45-39 over McCain, the same margin he has held now for 3 months. But Obama is not winning by wooing Independents or Republicans. Heck, he is not even dominating Dems as he should. He is winning, and is a shoo in, because the country hates Republicans. Starting with George Bush who has a 25% approval rating.

Obama wins because Dems lead Republicans in party ID by 7 to 10 points. McCain does better with Republicans, 78-11, than Obama does with Democrats, 74-10, while they split Independents 40-40. But there are more Democrats than Republicans now. That is why Obama is winning.

More . . .

And how does Obama lock in the win in this election and achieve a landslide? By closing the deal with Clinton supporters. The polls shows that Obama only wins Clinton supporters 52-19 with 24% undecided. McCain leads among white women by 42-38 with 17% undecided.

Pick Hillary as his VP and Obama will win in a landslide - a 7 to 10 point win. Don't pick her and it will be a 2-5 point win. It is that simple, as it has been since June.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 06, 2008 (boomark / email).