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Better Than Nothing

By Anonymous

Beating a credit rating agency ($) in rating tranches of synthetic CDOs isn't something to write home about, but it's better than nothing:

In this paper, we demonstrate how CDS-implied ratings for corporate reference names, together with an analytic CDO ratings model, can be used to derive CDS-implied tranche ratings for corporate synthetic CDOs (CSOs). It is an experiment in which we change one key variable, the ratings of the portfolio of reference entities, while holding other data and model assumptions constant and measure how tranche ratings perform. We find that CDS-implied tranche ratings lead changes in Moody's ratings, more accurately rank order default losses by rating, and exhibit higher loss prediction accuracy ratios for the riskiest tranches.

Full post as published by Economics of Contempt on February 20, 2009 (boomark / email).