Legal Commentary

NC: Lessons From VA, SC and GA?

By Big Tent Democrat

Public Policy Polling is suggesting that Obama will outperform the recent NC polling:

Barack Obama won three of the primaries in our surrounding states here in North Carolina- South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And in all three of those states the polling vastly underestimated him . . . In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.

This is true. However, in South Carolina (1/25), Clinton and Edwards split the white vote (43% of the vote.) In Georgia (2/5), Clinton won the white vote (43% of the vote) by 53-43 (Edwards was still in the ballot and took 4%). Virginia (2/12) was, with Wisconsin (2/14), the last contested state where Obama won the white vote. Oh by the way, SUSA's polling was quite good for Virginia.

SUSA's polling was quite prescient. It predicted Obama would take 47% of the white vote (63% of the vote) and 86% of the African American vote (29%), with Obama winning by 22. The exit polls showed Obama winning 52% of the white vote (61% of the vote)and 90% of the African American vote (30% of the vote). Obama won by 29.

For North Carolina, SUSA is predicting, as of now, the following, Obama will get 30% of the white vote (61%) and 87% of the African American vote (33%). Obama by 5. If SUSA has the same errors as in Virginia, Obama takes 35% of the white (59% of the vote) and 90% of the A-A vote (34% of the vote.) What does this translate into? 54-46 Obama.

SUSA is the best pollster in this cycle. I think an 8 point Obama win in North Carolina is what we should expect.

By Big Tent Democrat

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 04, 2008 (boomark / email).