Legal Commentary

NCAA Basketball Championship Game 2008 : Prediction of Winner between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Memphis Tigers

By Andis Kaulins

Using our beta AKBPSYS (AK Basketball Prediction System), we correctly called the Kansas win over North Carolina and the Memphis win over UCLA.

Going into those games:
Kansas had scored 80.6 points per game and allowed 61.2 points per game for a +19.5 ppg advantage (ppga)
Memphis had scored 80.3 points per game and allowed 61.6 points per game for a +18.7 ppga

The Jayhawks beat the Tar Heels by 18 points 84-66 about 1-2 points below their season average.
The Tigers beat the Bruins by 15 points 78-63, about 3-4 points below their season average.

Using the adjustments of the AKBPSYS we had the following rankings for the Final Four prior to the semifinal games (the point total after each team is the adjusted points per game advantage, i.e. adjusted for schedule difficulty, points allowed by the defense, and won-loss records):

1. Kansas 13.7
2. Memphis 13.2
3. UCLA 11.7
4. North Carolina 11.2

Interestingly, we find our rating results for the Final Four agree with Ken Pomeroy's overall basketball ratings, and an analysis of the Final Four by Steve Makinen is useful, who notes that if Kansas plays its top basketball, it is a team which can not be beaten at this level of college competition.

The Vegas line is 1 point in favor of Memphis, which surprises us.

If the championship game goes according to our analysis of the stats, these almost evenly matched teams should give us quite a ball game with Kansas in our prediction winning by a point 71-70 (presuming the game does not go into overtime). We pick that score because both teams had almost an equivalent seasonal statistic in this regard:

The average number of points by both teams in a game played by Kansas was 141.8
The average number of points by both teams in a game played by Memphis was 141.9.

You can't get too much closer than that.

As far as standard analysis of the teams is concerned, it would seem to us that the decisive factor is the close team cohesiveness of Kansas, which should be mirrored in the game by more assists for Kansas than for Memphis, and that should make the difference in the final game.

However, if one of these teams is on its game 100% and the other team not playing fully in top form, either team could turn the final game into laugher on either side. Hence, we hope both teams play up to top capabilities, in which case the championship game should be a barnburner.

Full post as published by LawPundit on April 06, 2008 (boomark / email).