Legal Commentary

McCain's Tightrope

By TChris

John McCain has locked up the Republican nomination, but he may not have locked up Republican votes in the general election. Will he need to move farther to the right to keep the Republican voting coalition intact?

The size of the evangelical community ensures its voice must be listened to. In the post room of Focus on the Family, dozens of workers sift through the mail, which can be as much as 150,000 items a day. Such power and influence mean evangelicals are a voting bloc McCain cannot write off. His campaign is bombarding 600 nationwide leaders with regular emails and appeals for help. Plans have been drawn up to mobilise the evangelical vote in 18 vital states. His top staff, like senior aide Charlie Black, have regular meetings with evangelical leaders. It might work. McCain's record on the key issue for many conservative evangelicals - abortion - is solidly hostile. 'The evangelical community will come around in the end,' said Steve Mitchell, a political pollster and chairman of Mitchell Research. 'Some leaders have not endorsed him yet because they are just tough negotiators. They are playing politics.'

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McCain's problems still leave him walking a tightrope. He needs evangelical voters, but also needs to retain his appeal to the more moderate middle ground. McCain was recently forced to renounce the endorsements of two religious leaders because of their past extremist statements on Islam and Jews.

McCain may find that his balancing act between the Republican base and the middle ground becomes impossible. Take two Colorado City women: Susan Henderson and Cindy Smith. Both were Bush voters in 2004. Both distrust McCain. 'I am pro-choice and he's not,' said Henderson. Smith said: 'I'm the conservative type. McCain is a bit too much for the other side.' Neither would say she would definitely vote for McCain in November. Nor would they reject Obama outright.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on June 14, 2008 (boomark / email).