Legal Commentary

Bell on Prediction Markets & the Law
Tom W. Bell (Chapman University School of Law) has posted Private Prediction Markets and the Law (Journal of Prediction Markets, 2008) on SSRN. Here is the abstract: This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U...

Prediction Markets, Again
I am a great fan of the literature on prediction markets and of their potential for policy innovation. Two recent articles are well worth reading for their insights on prediction markets...

Prediction Markets & Being Blacklisted at Volokh Conspiracy
Jonathan Adler today quotes from an opinion in the NYT by Northwestern professor on whether prediction markets should be granted...

Strategic Manipulation of the Information Markets
Just over a week ago, Nate Silver, the founder of the excellent political blog FiveThirtyEight.com, wrote about potential manipulation of Intrade?s information market on the 2008 presidential race...

The Taxation of Prediction Markets
Philip Robin Cleary (J.D. 2008, Brooklyn) has published Note, Predicting the Taxation of Prediction Markets, 27 Va. Tax Rev. 953 (2008). Here is part of the Introduction: To date, federal tax law gives little guidance on how to treat gains....

Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets
People who run in-house, corporate prediction markets have told me that U.S. laws against illegal insider trading give them nightmares. The problem arises because a private prediction market typically generates material nonpublic information about the corporation that hosts it...

Robert Fresh Markets Win $21.6 Million Insurance Lawsuit
Robert Fresh Groceries Wins $21.6 Million Katrina Insurance Lawsuit