Legal Commentary

In this post yesterday, I raised the notion that developments within both the Democratic and Republican parties could present a unique new opportunity for the emergence of a viable third party in the United States.  Let me unpack this idea a bit more in the hope of getting some feedback on my thinking.

1.  With the approval ratings of Prez. Bush and the Congress so low, I think there is deep nationwide disenchantment with the political status quo.  This reality in part explains the success of three non-traditional candidates in the 2008 presidential primaries of our two modern major parties. 

2. Important factions within both parties seem deeply troubled by modern developments: many fiscal and social conservatives are quite troubled by modern Republican realities; the Clinton-Obama battle has revealed deep and consequential fault lines within traditional Democratic voting blocs.

3.  There are a few prominent non-traditional politicians with lots of money and name recognition who could jump-start serious third-party talk.  New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg has already started some of this talk, and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is another name that comes to mind.  I suspect a serious national candidate with the serious backing of both Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger would have a real good chance to compete in California and New York (garnering all the media attention that is always focused on these two states).  That's a pretty good running head-start for anyone.

4. Prominent politically-oriented celebrities ranging from Bono to Angelina Jolie to Oprah Winfrey might readily be drawn to work with/for a new political party that lacks the historical baggage of the traditional parties.  In addition, though politically-oriented athletes are depressingly hard to find these days (see ESPN piece here), I could imagine a new third party finding ways to appeal to prominent socially-conscious athletes ranging from Charles Barkley to Brett Farve to Cal Ripken to Tiger Woods.

5.  Depending upon how they are treated by their own parties, some big names from the 2008 campaign might come to see the virtues of trying to re-make the political map by going off in a whole new direction.  Of course, Barack Obama is the first person I think of here, but I could also imagine Mitt Romney and/or Mike Huckabee being drawn away from the Republican party if not given serious consideration as McCain's VP.  Senator Joe Lieberman's 2006 re-election as an independent, of course, shows the possibilities of retaining political power even after leaving a long-established connection to a particular political party.

These various forces hardly ensure that a new third party would have a real chance to compete the presidency in 2008 or have a long-term political future.  Nevertheless, some serious talk by serious people about starting a serious third party ? which might call itself the "Good Government Party" party or the "Independence Party" ? like would significantly impact the 2008 political dynamics in many (expected and unexpected) ways.