Legal Commentary

Rick Hasen has a guest post at ACSBlog on why we cannot and should not try to draw any conclusions about the outcome of the appeal in Perry based on the Ninth Circuit motion panel's stay order. Hasen makes three points for why there are no tea leaves to read: 1) different decisionmaker, unless some or all of the motion panel members happen to be selected at random for the merits panel; 2) the motions panel was probably motivated more by a desire to preserve the status quo of no same-sex marriages, a point I agree with; and 3) granting the stay takes it off Justice Kennedy's plate and slows the whole litigation down, which Hasen argues makes it more likely that SCOTUS will find Prop 8 unconstitutional.

The whole thing is worth a read.