Legal Commentary

The Electoral Map

By Big Tent Democrat

The most recent electoralvote.com electoral map provides a picture of the election that I largely agree with. What it means in my opinion is what I have been saying for a while now - this election will be decided by Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan (now add Missouri.)

Right now, the map shows McCain holding the Solid Republican South and Obama holding the Gore/Kerry states (plus Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico). Obama's ability to take his electoral vote number comfortably over 270 depends on a showing of a 1 point lead in Ohio, a 3 point lead in Michigan, a 1 point lead in Missouri and a 5 point lead in Pennsylvania.

To get to 270, McCain needs to hold Ohio and take Michigan and/or Pennsylvania from the Gore/Kerry column (assuming he holds Virginia, if Obama wins Virginia, then he won in a landslide and all of this is moot). More . . .

I think Obama's idea of contesting as many states as possible is terrific. He certainly has enough money to do so. The more McCain is defending in Virginia and North Carolina, the less he is on offense in Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania.

But make no mistake, if this is a close race, as I suspect it will be, those are the four key states that will decide the election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on June 12, 2008 (boomark / email).