Legal Commentary

Demography Is Political Destiny: WaPo Analysis

By Big Tent Democrat

The other day I did a post on the political demography of Ohio and why Obama's performance among non-whites is why he will win there. WaPo's Numbers Blog reaches a similar conclusion using their own polling numbers and relinks to their Ohio analysis from a few months back. Today they write:

Obama currently outpaces recent Democratic nominees among white voters, but his advantage among nonwhite voters is even more dramatic. Overall, nonwhites go for Obama over McCain 80 to 16 percent, with African Americans and Hispanics in particular providing a big boost to the Democrat.

. . . A few months ago, the Post took a look at how a boost in black turnout could benefit Obama, assessing the results using two scenarios, one in which Obama took John F. Kerry's share of the vote among African Americans, and another in which he won 95 percent of black voters. In the clearly more realistic 95 percent scenario, if turnout among non-blacks held steady, Obama would win Ohio without any boost in black turnout and Nevada with a slim 8 percent uptick. . .

Obama leads by 9, 53-44, in the WaPo/ABC tracker.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 31, 2008 (boomark / email).