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College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 5 (Part 2)

By Andis Kaulins

We became used to that kind of playcalling under former head coach Callahan. One might consider looking at the University of Tulsa game films and the offense that Gus Malzahn runs there. Why is a top offensive coach like that not running the Cornhusker offense?

Are the Huskers competitive again? We doubt it. The Cornhuskers still have a VERY long way to go to rejoin the football elite corps. Accordingly, Husker fans should not place great expectations in the rest of the forthcoming seaon, which may be marked by some blowout losses when playing top teams.

Our record this week is 16-11 in picking the winner and 10-14 against the spread.

The New Mexico Lobos (4.7., 5.3, SoS=45) (Albuquerque, New Mexico) are favored on the road by 4 points over the New Mexico State Aggies (5.2., 6.5, SoS=20) (Las Cruces, New Mexico). By SPRS ratings, these teams are even this year. Last year New Mexico won at home 44-34. The Aggies have a weak defense which should not hurt them that much against the subpar offense of the Lobos. We go with the home team.
Our call: 31-30 for New Mexico State.
Result: New Mexico scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter to win 35-24.
Our record this week is 16-12 in picking the winner and 10-15 against the spread.

The Northern Illinois University Huskies (6.4, 5.0, SoS=80) (DeKalb, Illinois) are favored on the road by 6 points over the Eastern Michigan Eagles (5.9, 5.9, SoS=154) (Ypsilanti, Michigan). Last year, SPRS ranked these two teams even, and Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois on the road 21-19. This year, Northern Illinois would appear to have the stronger team.
Our call: 34-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result: Northern Illinois won 37-0.
Our record this week is 17-12 in picking the winner and 11-15 against the spread.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4.6, 5.1, SoS=122) (Notre Dame (South Bend), Indiana) are favored at home by 2 1/2 points over the Purdue Boilermakers (5.4, 5.1, SoS=70) (West Lafayette, Indiana). Last year the Irish lost at Purdue 33-19 and the current season stats would make Purdue the favorite again this year due to the weakness of the Fighting Irish offense.
Our call: 31-24 for Purdue.
Result: Notre Dame won 38-21, even though the stats for the game were almost identical for both teams, but Purdue wilted in the second half.
Our record this week is 17-13 in picking the winner and 11-16 against the spread.

The Ohio State Buckeyes (4.8, 4.3, SoS=47) (Columbus, Ohio) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Minnesota Gophers (6.1, 5.2, SoS=99) (Twin Cities, Minnesota). We do not think the Buckeye offense is good enough to warrant such a large spread. By SPRS, the Buckeyes do not have much more than 3 points of a home field advantage.
Our call: 24-21 for Ohio State.
Result: Ohio State won 34-21.
Our record this week is 18-13 in picking the winner and 12-16 against the spread.

The Oklahoma Sooners (7.0, 3.6, SoS=129) (Norman, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Texas Christian University (TCU) Horned Frogs (5.3, 3.4, SoS=110) (Fort Worth, Texas). By SPRS ratings, Oklahoma has a 1.3 rating advantage x 9 = 12 points plus 3 points for the home field = 15 points.
Our call: 28-13 for Oklahoma.
Result: Oklahoma won 35-10.
Our record this week is 19-13 in picking the winner and 12-17 against the spread.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (7.9, 4.2, SoS=181) (Stillwater, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 16 1/2 points over the Troy Trojans (5.7, 3.5, SoS=127) (Troy, Alabama). We think that Troy will be able to slow down the Cowboy offense a bit, as the current SPRS ratings give Oklahoma State a 9-point edge plus the 3-point home field advantage = 12 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Oklahoma State.
Result: A Troy team that had played respectably 28-10 against Ohio State was blown out of the stadium by Oklahoma State 55-24, who led 35-10 at the half.
Our record this week is 20-13 in picking the winner and 12-18 against the spread.

The Oregon University Ducks (6.4, 4.5, SoS=12) (Eugene, Oregon) are favored on the road by 19 1/2 points over the Washington State Cougars (4.6, 6.7, SoS=91) (Pullman, Washington). In the Oregon loss to Boise State, 37-32, after a concussion to the starting QB and an ineffectual injury-hampered replacement, freshman Darron Thomas had his redshirt pulled and led the Ducks from a 37-13 4th quarter deficit to a near win. If that performance is indicative that Thomas may start at QB and if he continues to play like that, Oregon may even become dangerous for USC. Hence, we look for a big offensive showing against the Cougars, as the SPRS ratings make the Ducks about a 6 to 7 TD favorite.
Our call: 52-7 for Oregon.
Result: Oregon won 63-14 as Jeremiah Masoli returned from his concussion in the previous game to lead the Ducks.
Our record this week is 21-13 in picking the winner and 13-18 against the spread.

The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) Nittany Lions (7.4, 3.5, SoS=132) (State College, Pennsylvania) are favored at home by 14 points over the Illinois University Fighting Illini (6.2, 5.4, SoS=67) (Urbana-Champaign, Illinois). In the Big 10, Ohio State has gotten all the hype but this Penn State team appears to be extremely strong. By SPRS ratings, Penn State is a 23-point favorite plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 26 points.
Our call: 40-14 for Penn State.
Result: 38-24 for Penn State.
Our record this week is 22-13 in picking the winner and 13-18-1 against the spread.

The Pittsburgh Panthers (4.7, 4.6, SoS=11) (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Syracuse Orange (4.9, 6.5, SoS=42) (Syracuse, New York). The Orange football fortunes have fallen on hard times. SPRS gives Pittsburgh a 2.6 rating advantage x 9 = 23 points minus the 3-point home field advantage = 20 points.
Our call: 34-14 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pittsburgh scored 18 unanswered points in the 4th quarter as the Panthers rebounded from a 24-13 deficit to save the win 34-24.
Our record this week is 23-13 in picking the winner and 13-19-1 against the spread.

The Rice University Owls (5.4, 6.8, SoS=27) (Houston, Texas) are favored at home by 19 points over the University of North Texas Mean Green (4.4, 6.8, SoS=22) (Denton, Texas). By SPRS, Rice has an advantage of about 11 points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 14 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Rice.
Result: The Rice offense ran wild in winning 77-20 as the Owls led 56-20 at the half. The Mean Green committed 6 turnovers to zero for Rice.
Our record this week is 24-13 in picking the winner and 13-20-1 against the spread.

The San Diego State Aztecs (4.6, 5.9, SoS=74) (San Diego, California) are favored at home by 10 1/2 points over the University of Idaho Vandals (4.8, 6.5, SoS=76) (Moscow, Idaho). By SPRS the Aztecs have a .8 rating advantage x 9 = 7 points plus the home field advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 31-21 for San Diego State.
Result: San Diego State won 45-17.
Our record this week is 25-13 in picking the winner and 13-21-1 against the spread.

The South Carolina Gamecocks (5.1, 4.0, SoS=6) (Columbia, South Carolina) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the UAB Blazers (6.2, 7.8, SoS=208) (Birmingham, Alabama). Even without taking strength of schedule into account, the Gamecocks are 24-point favorites by SPRS plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 27 points.
Our call: 44-17 for South Carolina.
Result: South Carolina won 26-13.
Our record this week is 26-13 in picking the winner and 13-22-1 against the spread.

The South Florida Bulls (6.0, 3.9, SoS=115) (Tampa, Florida) are favored on the road by 8 1/2 points over the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4.3, 5.7, SoS=16) (Raleigh, North Carolina). By SPRS, the Bulls hold the advantage by 24 points less 3 points home field advantage = 21 points.
Our call: 28-7 for South Florida.
Result: South Florida won 41-10.
Our record this week is 27-13 in picking the winner and 14-22-1 against the spread.

The Texas Longhorns (7.2, 4.8, SoS=106) (Austin, Texas) are favored at home by 28 points over the Arkansas Razorbacks (5.8, 5.3, SoS=62) (Fayetteville, Arkansas). By SPRS, Texas has 1.8 x 9 = 16-point rating edge plus 3 points for the home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Texas.
Result: Texas beat Arkansas 52-10.
Our record this week is 28-13 in picking the winner and 14-23-1 against the spread.

The Texas A&M Aggies (4.7, 5.7, SoS=93) (College Station, Texas) are favored at home by 28 1/2 points over the Army Black Knights (3.9, 5.5, SoS=65) (West Point, New York). By SPRS, Texas A&M has an advantage of only about 4 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage of 3 points so that we call it for the Aggies by 1 TD.
Our call: 28-21 for Texas A&M.
Result: Texas A&M won 21-17.
Our record this week is 29-13 in picking the winner and 15-23-1 against the spread.

The Toledo Rockets (6.0, 5.6, SoS=107) (Toledo, Ohio) are favored at home by 18 points over the Florida International University Golden Panthers (3.2, 5.4, SoS=8) (University Park, Miami, Florida). By SPRS we give Toledo a 14-point advantage plus the 3-point home advantage = 17 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Toledo.
Result: In a stunning turnaround of expectations, Florida International won 35-16, due primarily to 4 Toledo turnovers.
Our record this week is 29-14 in picking the winner and 16-23-1 against the spread.

The University of Central Florida (UCF) Knights (4.0, 5.1, SoS=56) (Orlando, Florida) are favored on the road by 5 points over the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) Miners (4.9, 6.6, SoS=14) (El Paso, Texas). UCF has a 4-point rating advantage minus the UTEP home field advantage of 3 points makes it a one-point game by SPRS.
Our call: 28-27 for UCF.
Result: UTEP won 58-13 in a truly unexpected blowout of UCF.
Our record this week is 29-15 in picking the winner and 17-23-1 against the spread.

The University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) Rebels (5.5, 5.7, SoS=7) (Las Vegas, Nevada) are favored at home by 3 points over the University of Nevada Wolf Pack (5.9, 6.5, SoS=28) (Reno, Nevada). By SPRS UNLV holds about a 7-point advantage plus the 3 points home team advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 41-31 for UNLV.
Result: Nevada won 49-27.
Our record this week is 29-16 in picking the winner and 17-24-1 against the spread.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4.5, 4.4, SoS=36) (Winston-Salem, North Carolina) are favored at home by 16 points over the Navy Midshipmen (7.0, 6.2, SoS=90) (Annapolis, Maryland). Normal stats do not seem to work well in assessing the Wake Forest football team. On paper, by the stats, SPRS rating makes Wake Forest about a 6-point favorite. How will the Demon Deacons do against the Navy running game? Last year at Navy, they won 44-24, in part due to 3 fumbles by the Midshipmen.
Our call: 30-24 for Wake Forest.
Result: Navy won 24-17.
Our record this week is 29-17 in picking the winner and 18-24-1 against the spread.

The University of Washington Huskies (4.2, 7.4, SoS=3) (Seattle, Washington) are favored at home by 4 points over the Stanford University Cardinal (4.5, 5.1, SoS=37) (Stanford, Palo Alto, California). The Huskies are 119th in defense by yards per play, in part because their first three opponents were Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma, all ranked teams. The aggressive Stanford defense sacked the San Jose quarterback EIGHT times in the last game (compare that to only two sacks by the Huskers against the same team), so the Washington passing attack will have its hands full. Being a Stanford alum, we see things going the way of the Cardinal, although the strong Washington performance against BYU is a cause for concern. By SPRS, Stanford is favored by about two TDs.
Our call: 37-23 for Stanford.
Result: Stanford won 35-28.
Our record this week is 30-17 in picking the winner and 19-24-1 against the spread.

The West Virginia Mountaineers (5.4, 4.9, SoS=15) (Morgantown, West Virginia) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Marshall University Thundering Herd (6.0, 5.5, SoS=64) (Huntington, West Virginia). By SPRS, the Mountaineers are about a 1 TD favorite, minus the Marshall home field advantage = 4 points. Marshall has shown that it can be beaten in the air, but its rushing defense appears to be good, so that West Virginia has its work cut out for it.
Our call: 28-24 for West Virginia.
Result: West Virginia won 27-3 as Marshall was unable to stop the run.
Our record this week is 31-17 in picking the winner and 19-25-1 against the spread.

The Western Michigan Broncos (6.6, 5.8, SoS=59) (Kalamazoo, Michigan) are favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over the Temple University Owls (4.6, 5.5, SoS=35) (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). By SPRS, the Broncos are about 10-point favorites minus the Temple home field advantage of 3 points = 7 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Western Michigan.
Result: Western Michigan won 7-3.
Our record this week is 32-17 in picking the winner and 20-25-1 against the spread.

The University of Wisconsin Badgers (6.2, 4.9, SoS=21) (Madison, Wisconsin) are favored on the road by 7 points over the University of Michigan Wolverines (4.7, 4.2, SoS=31) (Ann Arbor, Michigan). The SPRS ratings make the Badgers the favorites by 12 minus the home field advantage of 3 = 9 points. Since we have Wolverine grads in the family, however, we look for improved Michigan play and the upset win.
Our call: 24-23 for Michigan.
Result: Michigan won 27-25.
Our record this week is 33-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The University of Rhode Island Rams (Kingston, Rhode Island) at the Boston College Eagles (4.6, 4.2, SoS=98) (Newton, Massachusetts).
Our call: 42-14 for Boston College.
Result: Boston College won 42-0.
Our record this week is 34-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Virginia Military Institute (VMI) Keydets (Lexington, Virginia) at the University of Ohio Bobcats (4.8, 4.5, SoS=19) (Athens, Ohio).
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.
Result: Ohio won 51-31.
Our record this week is 35-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Morgan State University Golden Bears (Baltimore, Maryland) at the Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, Scarlet Knights (5.5, 6.3, SoS=41) (New Brunswick, Piscataway, New Jersey).
Our call: 49-7 for Rutgers.
Result: Rutgers won 38-0.
Our record this week is 36-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

The Central Arkansas Bears (Conway, Arkansas) at the University of Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8.4, 5.7, SoS=193) (Tulsa, Oklahoma):
Our call: 55-24 for Tulsa.
Result: Tulsa won 62-34.
Our record this week is 37-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Weber State Wildcats (Ogden, Utah) at the University of Utah Utes (5.7, 3.5, SoS=18) (Salt Lake City, Utah). Last year Weber State lost 56-7 to Boise State, and this game may not be much different to a similarly strong opponent.
Our call: 51-7 for Utah.
Result: Utah won 37-21.
Our record this week is 38-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

The University of Hawaii Warriors (4.8, 5.3, SoS=111) (Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii) are favored at home by 3 points over the San Jose State University Spartans (4.9, 4.7, SoS=86) (San Jose, California). By SPRS current ratings, we favor San Jose State by 10 points minus the Hawaii 3-point home field advantage.
Our call: 30-23 for San Jose State.
Result: San Jose State beat Hawaii 20-17.
Our record this week is 39-17 in picking the winner and 21-25-1 against the spread.

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 29, 2008 (boomark / email).