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The odds used below are those posted at the College Football Prediction Tracker on Wednesday, October 8, 2008. The unique system used for game prognostications is SPRS, which uses primarily our own derived NAYPPA system (based on yards per play stats from cfbstats.com) plus the Massey Ratings strength of schedule (SoS) for making college football predictions, although we handle SoS differently here than for a full season. Thus far this year, for Division I-A FBS football, the median (of 120 teams) net yards per play gained on offense is 5.5 whereas the median net yards per play allowed on defense is 5.3. In the year 2007 those medians were 5.4 and 5.3 respectively for the full season. Unless otherwise noted, the stats in parentheses give the net average yards per play gained on offense and net average yards per play allowed on defense thus far this football season. Each point of SPRS rating advantage = 9 points on the scoreboard (see the 2007 final rankings). We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Tuesday, October 7

Result: Troy 30 (5.7, 4.6, Sos=84), Florida Atlantic (5.4, 5.7, Sos=33) 17
We posted our predictions too late for this game. Troy, by our stats, would have had a NAYPPA advantage of 1.4 x 9 = 13 points minus the home field advantage for Florida Atlantic = 3 points minus another ca. 5 points for a weaker schedule. Florida Atlantic would have been docked 4 points for having two more losses and another point for a weak defense, so that we would have favored Troy by about 10 points.

Thursday, October 9

Clemson (6.3, 4.8, NAYPPA=1.5, SoS=63) is a 2 point underdog at Wake Forest (4.5, 4.6, NAYPPA=-.1, SoS=9). Our stats analysis gives Clemson a .4 x 9 advantage = 3 to 4 points.
We call it: 21-17 for Clemson.
Wake Forest remains one of the wonder teams of college football and continues to keep winning by opportunistic play in spite of what appears to be an average team. Clemson continues to disappoint as its allegedly potent offense was throttled fully.
Result: Wake Forest won 12-7
This week, we are thus far 0-1 in calling the game winner and 0-1 against the spread.

UAB (6.1, 6.9, SoS=111) is the underdog by 18.5 points at Houston (6.6, 5.8, SoS=51).
We call it: 44-21 for Houston.
Houston had a NAYPPA of 7.7 to 4.5 = 3.2 yards per play in this game which translates into about 28 points.
Result: Houston won 45-20.
This week, we are thus far 1-1 in calling the game winner and 1-1 against the spread.

Friday, October 10

Louisville (5.8, 4.3, SoS=56) is favored by 6.5 points at Memphis (6.0, 6.3, SoS=117).
We call it: 43-24 for Louisville.
Result: Louisville won 35-28, although Memphis put up 481 yards total offense to the Cardinals only 299.
This week, we are thus far 2-1 in calling the game winner and 2-1 against the spread.

Saturday, October 11

Texas (6.6, 4.5, SoS=64) is a 6.5 point underdog vs. Oklahoma (6.8, 3.8, SoS=76).
The game takes place in Dallas, so the normal home field rule does not apply. Last year, Oklahoma beat Texas in Dallas 28-21 and Texas beat TCU 34-13, whereas Oklahoma beat TCU 35-10 this year. In 2008, Texas has been constantly improving under new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, called Coach Champ by his players. As written by Jimmy Burch at the Star-Telegram.com:
"The fifth-ranked Longhorns (5-0, 1-0 in Big 12) head into Saturday?s showdown with No. 1 Oklahoma (5-0, 1-0) as the NCAA leader in sacks (3.8 per game). Texas also ranks fourth in scoring defense (11.4 points per game), more than two touchdowns better than last season?s pace (25.3 average)."
THAT's what we call top coaching, and the Oklahoma offense can be sure to meet up against maximum pressure this game. The Texas offense in turn has also been strong this year, with three of its five games thus far this season decided by the same score of 52-10.
We call it: 31-27 for Oklahoma.
Result:

Iowa (5.9, 4.4, SoS=24) is favored by 5.5 points at Indiana (6.1, 5.0, SoS=58).
We call it: 24-21 for Iowa.
Result:

Toledo (5.1, 5.5, SoS=66) is the underdog by 17 points at Michigan (4.5, 4.9, SoS=7).
We call it: 28-20 for Michigan.
Result:

East Carolina (5.3, 5.3, SoS=48) is favored by 5.5 points at Virginia (4.3, 5.5, SoS=3).
We call it: 21-20 for Virginia.
Result:

Syracuse (5.1, 6.3, SoS=8) is a 24 point underdog at West Virginia (5.6, 4.4, SoS=68).
We call it: 36-17 for West Virginia.
Result:

Minnesota (5.4, 5.6, SoS=95) is the underdog by 12 points at Illinois (6.2, 5.5, SoS=20).
We call it: 38-20 for Illinois.
Result:

Rutgers (5.2, 5.3, SoS=73) is the underdog by 7.5 points at Cincinnati (6.0, 5.0, SoS=83).
We call it: 31-21 for Cincinnati.
Result:

Colorado (4.6, 5.1, SoS=21) is the underdog by 14 points at Kansas (6.1, 4.9, SoS=80).
We call it: 34-21 for Kansas.
Result:

South Carolina (5.1, 4.3, SoS=19) at Kentucky (4.8, 4.3, SoS=86) has a line of 0 points
Kentucky has given up no more than 17 points this year, to Alabama. South Carolina has twice given up 24 points. Do the Gamecocks have the offense to beat the Wildcats at home?
We call it: 17-14 for Kentucky.
Result:

Eastern Michigan (5.5, 5.9, SoS=112) at Army (4.4, 5.7, SoS=96) has a line of 0 points
Normally, we would favor Eastern Michigan, but Army may have found itself in a stunning 44-13 win over Tulane last week, breaking a 10-game losing streak.
We call it: 31-30 for Army.
Result:

Utah (5.7, 4.4, SoS=41) is favored by 23.5 points at Wyoming (4.1, 4.9, SoS=82).
We call it: 27-7 for Utah.
Result:

Kansas State (6.1, 5.5, SoS=105) is favored by 3.5 points at Texas A&M (5.1, 5.6, SoS=85).
We call it: 31-26 for Kansas State.
Result:

Vanderbilt (4.7, 4.9, SoS=32) is favored by 3 points at Mississippi State (4.6, 5.2, SoS=25).
Our stats would call this game even. We are not sure we understand why unbeaten Vanderbilt, who beat Rice 38-21 is ranked 13th, and Tulsa, who beat Rice 63-28 is unranked, but the pollsters will have their conference ? reasons.
We call it: 21-20 for Mississippi State
Result:

Ohio (5.4, 5.3, SoS=70) is favored by 2 points at Kent State (5.4, 5.9, SoS=97).
We call it: 23-17 for Ohio.
Result:

Nebraska (6.5, 5.5, SoS=6) is a 20 point underdog at Texas Tech (7.5, 4.8, SoS=108)
By the stats, the Huskers should only be about 10-point underdogs, but with their leaky secondary and poor defense, combined with a sputtering offense and bad playcalling through an inept offensive system, Nebraska could get blown away easily. As an alumnus, I remain unjustifiably optimistic about the thus far disappointing Huskers in the hopes that Pelini can start to get his team to play intelligent football. The offense has to keep moving to keep the weak defensive unit off the field. How about offering the offensive coordinator job to Gus Malzahn?
We call it: 41-31 for Texas Tech.
Result:

Arizona State (5.7, 4.8, SoS=11) is a 27.5 point underdog at USC (6.8, 3.7, SoS=4).
We call it: 40-17 for USC.
Result:

Tennessee (5.0, 3.9, SoS=99) is the underdog by 12.5 points at Georgia (6.8, 4.6, SoS=13).
We call it: 41-20 for Georgia.
Result:

Purdue (5.4, 5.5, SoS=43) is a 19.5 point underdog at Ohio State (5.3, 4.4, SoS=62).
We call it: 27-17 for the Buckeyes.
Result:

Notre Dame (5.4, 5.4, SoS=35) is a 7.5 point underdog at North Carolina (5.8, 4.8, SoS=17).
We call it: 31-17 for North Carolina.
Result:

Michigan State (5.4, 5.4, SoS=49) is favored by 1.5 points at Northwestern (5.1, 4.6, SoS=72).
We call it: 24-20 for Northwestern.
Result:

TCU (5.1, 3.9, SoS=90) is favored by 15.5 points at Colorado State (5.6, 5.9, SoS=47).
We call it: 24-17 for TCU.
Result:

Gardner-Webb (SoS=217) at Georgia Tech (6.7, 3.9, SoS=12).
We call it: 52-10 for Georgia Tech.
Result:

Western Michigan (6.4, 5.2, SoS=128) is the underdog by 1.5 points at Buffalo (5.5, 6.0, SoS=15).
We call it: 34-31 for Western Michigan.
Result:

UCF (4.3, 5.4, SoS=92) is the underdog by 16.5 points at Miami (FL) (4.9, 4.9, SoS=42).
We call it: 32-14 for the Hurricanes.
Result:

Temple (4.4, 5.0, SoS=44) is the underdog by 8.5 points at Central Michigan (5.3, 6.3, SoS=78).
We call it: 28-24 for Temple.
Result:

Miami (OH) (4.4, 5.4, SoS=40) is a 10.5 point underdog at Northern Illinois (5.6, 4.6, SoS=125).
We call it: 35-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result:

New Mexico State (6.6, 5.2, SoS=101) is a 19.5 point underdog at Nevada (6.6, 5.9, SoS=52).
Our stats make this game nearly even, so we go with the home team.
We call it: 38-36 for Nevada.
Result:

Arkansas (5.4, 5.9, SoS=30) is the underdog by 19 points at Auburn (4.4, 3.9, SoS=77).
We call it: 17-10 for Auburn.
Result:

Arizona (6.0, 3.9, SoS=127) is favored by 6 points at Stanford (5.2, 5.3, SoS=18).
Our stats favor Arizona by 7, but, as an alumnus, we go here with the Cardinal at home.
We call it: 24-23 for Stanford.
Result:

New Mexico (4.7, 5.3, SoS=54) is the underdog by 23.5 points at Brigham Young (6.5, 4.6, SoS=116).
Our stats favor BYU by 20.
We call it: 27-7 for BYU.
Result:

Bowling Green (4.9, 5.3, SoS=29) is favored by 2 points at Akron (5.4, 5.5, SoS=75).
Our stats make this game nearly even, so we go with the home team.
We call it: 28-27 for Akron.
Result:

Washington State (4.2, 6.3, SoS=53) is a 29.5 point underdog at Oregon State (5.5, 5.3, SoS=1).
We call it: 38-10 for Oregon State.
Result:

Ball State (7.0, 5.3, SoS=104) is favored by 15.5 points at Western Kentucky (4.4, 5.3, SoS=61).
We call it: 31-14 for Ball State.
Result:

Iowa State (5.3, 6.1, SoS=87) is the underdog by 4.5 points at Baylor (6.2, 4.8, SoS=16).
We call it: 36-7 for Baylor.
Result:

Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL) (7.4, 6.2, SoS=122) is favored by 21.5 points at North Texas (4.8, 6.8, SoS=23).
We call it: 40-14 for Louisiana-Lafayette.
Result:

Louisiana-Monroe (5.1, 7.1, SoS=135) is a 12.5 point underdog at Arkansas State (7.1, 4.9, SoS=143).
We call it: 47-7 for Arkansas State.
Result:

Middle Tennessee State (4.8, 5.4, SoS=65) is the underdog by 1 point at Florida International (3.9, 5.1, SoS=67).
We call it: 24-21 for Middle Tennessee State.
Result:

Utah State (5.1, 5.9, SoS=22) is a 14.5 point underdog at San Jose State (4.7, 4.8, SoS=89).
We call it: 24-20 for San Jose State.
Result:

Oklahoma State (7.6, 4.8, SoS=115) is a 14 point underdog at Missouri (8.2, 4.8, SoS=50).
Cowboy head coach Mike Gundy may be starting to live up to the expectations of big Cowboy philanthropist T. Boone Pickens, as Oklahoma State is 5-0 and averaging over 52 points per game on offense.
We call it: 48-35 for Missouri.
Result:

LSU (6.6, 4.2, SoS=107) is the underdog by 6 points at Florida (6.3, 4.4, SoS=69).
We call it: 27-24 for Florida.
Result:

Penn State (7.1, 3.9, SoS=74) is favored by 5 points at Wisconsin (5.7, 4.9, SoS=37).
We call it: 21-14 for Penn State.
Result:

Boise State (6.8, 4.5, SoS=102) is favored by 11 points at Southern Miss (5.7, 5.7, SoS=94).
We call it: 35-17 for Boise State.
Result:

Tulsa (8.3, 5.8, SoS=120) is favored by 24.5 points at Southern Methodist (SMU) (5.5, 6.6, SoS=88).
We call it: 52-21 for Tulsa.
Result:

Tulane (5.4, 5.0, SoS=103) is a 4.5 point underdog at UTEP (5.2, 6.2, SoS=60).
We call it: 28-21 for Tulane.
Result:

Air Force (4.8, 4.8, SoS=45) is favored by 10.5 points at San Diego State (5.1, 5.6, SoS=59).
We call it: 21-17 for Air Force.
Result:

Idaho (4.7, 6.9, SoS=114) is the underdog by 34 points at Fresno State (6.5, 5.8, SoS=98).
We call it: 35-14 for Fresno State.
Result:

UCLA (4.5, 5.2, SoS=81) is an 18.5 point underdog at Oregon (6.0, 4.9, SoS=55).
We call it: 38-14 for Oregon.
Result:

Sunday, October 12

Louisiana Tech (4.7, 6.0, SoS=57) is the underdog by 7.5 points at Hawaii (5.1, 5.4, SoS=31)
We call it: 37-23 for Hawaii.
Result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on October 08, 2008 (boomark / email).