Home -> Law Blog Directory -> Legal Commentary Blogs -> LawPundit

Legal Commentary

: LawPundit

College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 4

By Andis Kaulins

Odds used are those posted at Yahoo Odds on Monday, September 15, 2008. The system used for game prognostications is SPRS. The stats is parentheses give the net average yards per play gained on offense and allowed on defense thus far this season. We disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. The home team is listed first. May the best team win.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

West Virginia (5.5, 5.0) is favored on the road by 3 points over Colorado (5.2, 4.5).
Our call: 27-24 for Colorado.
This West Virginia team bears little resemblance to last year's super team, as the Mountaineers are averaging a mere 5.5 net average yards per play on offense and 5.0 net average yards per play on defense, for a NAYPPA of only 0.5. Last year, for the whole season, those stats were 6.6 and 4.5 yards per play respectively, or a difference of 1.6 (2.1 to 0.5), which is equal to 1.6 x 9 = 14 to 15 points per game which separate this team from the team of last year. Colorado, by comparison, this year is averaging 5.2 net yards per play on offense and 4.5 yards on defense as opposed to figures of 5.1 on offense and 5.6 on defense last year. That is a turnaround of 1.2 x 9 = 11 points per game. This would give the Buffaloes an SPRS -1.1 rating this year (as opposed to -2.3 last year) and West Virginia an SPRS rating of -0.4 this year (as opposed to +1.2 last year). That would make West Virginia only a 4-5 point favorite, and subtracting 3 points for the Colorado home field advantage, would make West Virginia here only a 1-2 point favorite by SPRS, and we think the Buffs could win this one, thus calling it 27-24 for the Buffaloes.
Result: Colorado won in overtime 17-14 on Aric Goodman's field goal, as Colorado profited from two quick TDs in the first quarter, while the defense held West Virginia to only two scores in the game, a solid accomplishment for the constantly improving Dan Hawkins Buffs.
Our prognostication performance this week: 1-0 in calling the winner, 1-0 against the spread.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Connecticut (6.1, 4.0) is favored at home by 14 points over Baylor (7.2, 4.0).
Our call: 28-17 for UConn.
Last year by SPRS, UConn was 5.0 and 5.1 in net yards per play offense and defense respectively, whereas Baylor was 4.9 and 6.0. Last season, the Huskies were ranked 64th by SPRS and the Bears were ranked 147th, a difference of about 19 points. Baylor has made great progress under new head coach Art Briles and Connecticut has also improved, but not as much as Baylor (1.1 one more SPRS rating poinst than UConn = 10 points). Hence UConn is now only 9 points better than Baylor, combined with the 3 point home field advantage, would make our spread 12 points in favor of UConn, but we see the official spread has also dropped to 12 points by Wednesday, so we add a points for the home team here and call it by 11 points for UConn.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Akron (5.8 offense, 6.1 defense) is favored on the road by 7 points over Army (3.9, 5.3). Our call: 30-24 for Akron.
Last year, the net average yards per play offense and defense were 4.6 and 5.5 for Akron and 4.2 and 5.7 for Army, only difference of about 4 points on the scoreboard. Now that difference looks like about 9 to 10 points, but minus the 3-point home field advantage for Army, about 6 to 7 points. We call it 30-24 for Akron. We see that the official line has since moved from 7 points to 10 points in favor of Akron.

Alabama (5.4, 3.7) is favored on the road by 8 1/2 points over Arkansas(6.8, 4.4).
Our call: 31-26 for Arkansas.
The Razorbacks have a much stronger team by stats than the game scores show. Last year, they finished 1.4 SPRS points or 13 scoreboard points better than the Crimson Tide. A comparison with last year shows that Alabama has gained .6 SPRS points = 5 points on the scoreboard plus 3 points home advantage, which would still make Arkansas a 5-point favorite in this game.

Arizona (6.2, 4.0) is favored on the road by 1 point over UCLA (4.1, 5.5).
Our call: 31-21 for Arizona.
How could the Bruins beat Tennessee 27-24 and then lose to BYU 59-0? Actually, the Vols had better stats and UCLA should never have won that game.
Last year's ratings would have made Arizona about 3 points better than UCLA but without the home field advantage would have pointed to an even game. This year's ratings would suggest that the Wildcats are the stronger team, perhaps having both a better offense and a better defense. We call it for Arizona 31-21.

Arkansas State (7.7, 4.3) is favored at home by 5 points over Middle Tennessee (4.7, 5.0).
Our call: 35-28 for Arkansas State
Last year, these teams, clearly stronger this year, were nearly even in the ratings and rankings, with Middle Tennessee holding a slight edge. Both have beaten quality opponents, with Middle Tennessee upsetting Maryland two weeks ago and Arkansas State beating Texas A&M to start the season. A botched field goal cost the Red Wolves the game against Southern Miss. We call it by one TD for Arkansas State, 35-28.

Boston College (4.2, 4.5) is favored at home by 11 points over UCF (4.0, 4.9).
Our call: 31- 26 for Boston College.
Last year BC would have ranked 1.3 x 9 = 13 points better than Central Florida. This year, it looks like about a 5 point advantage, including the 3 points home field advantage. We call it 31-26 for BC.

Brigham Young (7.0 , 5.0) is favored at home by 26 1/2 points over Wyoming (4.3 , 4.7).
Our call: 44-14 for BYU
Last year BYU (5.8, 4.6) ranked 16th in the final SPRS rankings with a rating of -0.2 and Wyoming (4.4, 4.6) ranked 87th with a rating of -2.7. The Cowboys lost to the Cougars 35-10 at home. The difference of 2.5 rating points is equal to 23 points on the scoreboard plus the 3 points home field advantage = 26 points. As one can see from the average yards per play on offense and defense, the Cowboys are virtually the same team this year as last, whereas BYU appears to be somewhat stronger overall, with a 59-0 whitewash of UCLA last week. We call it for BYU 44-14.

Cincinnati (5.9 , 6.1 ) is favored at home by 12 1/2 points over Miami (OH) (4.8 , 5.2).
Our call: 41-17 for Cincinnati.
Last year Cincinnati (SPRS rating of -0.3 last year) averaged 6.0 yards per play on offense as opposed to 5.0 yards on defense and Miami of Ohio (SPRS rating of 3.1 last year) averaged 5.1 and 5.2 yards respectively. This year the Bearcats were mauled by the Sooners, which gives them worse stats than they will have at the end of the year. With the home field advantage, based on last year's final ratings, Cincinnati would by favored by 24 points by SPRS.

East Carolina (5.4, 4.3) is favored on the road by 7 1/2 points over North Carolina State ( 3.9, 5.6).
Our call: 28-17 for East Carolina.
Last year East Carolina won at home 34-20 and was ranked 78th and North Carolina State 81st in the SPRS final rankings. East Carolina had 5.7 net yards per play both on offense and defense whereas North Carolina State had net yards per play of 4.7 on offense and 5.2 on defense. The difference this year appears to be that the East Carolina defense is stronger and the North Carolina State offense is weaker. Against Clemson, the only Wolfpack TD came on an interception. Accordingly, it would appear that East Carolina does not have to do a lot of scoring to win. We see East Carolina as two TDs better, subtracting the Wolfpack home advantage here and call it for the Pirates by 11, 28-17.

Florida (6.4, 3.1) is favored on the road by 7 1/2 points over Tennessee (6.1 , 4.2).
Our call: 38-28 for Florida.
Last year Florida finished 1.6 SPRS rating points higher than Tennessee = 14 to 15 points on the scoreboard. Current stats make Florida 1.4 rating point better = 13 scoreboard points, subtracting the Vols home field advantage gives Florida the nod by 10.

Florida State (8.4, 3.2), ranked 24th, is favored at home by 4 1/2 points over Wake Forest (4.7 , 4.8), ranked 18th.
Our call: 41-31 for Florida State.
In last year's final SPRS rankings, Wake Forest (4.7, 4.6) was ranked 35th and Florida State 38th (5.3, 5.1), as the Seminoles lost on the road to the Demon Deacons 24-21. Florida State has thus far put up super stats against undermanned teams, so this will be a true test.

Fresno State (6.2 , 4.9) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Toledo (5.4, 5.2).
Our call: 27-17 for Fresno State.
Last year the Bulldogs had stats of 6.0 and 5.6 and the Rockets had stats of 5.9 and 6.3 on yards per play offense and defense. By last year's final SPRS rating, Fresno State (-1.9) would be favored over Toledo (-4.0) by 19 (2.1 x 9)minus 3 points = 16 points. This year, the yards per play shows a 1.1 point better rating performance by Fresno State = 10 points minus the Toledo home field advantage = 7 points. We think the Bulldogs are even stronger than that, judged by a 13-10 loss to Wisconsin in which Fresno State was the more dominating team statistically, and call it by 10 for Fresno State.

Georgia (7.1 , 4.6) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Arizona State (7.0 , 4.2).
Our call: 31-27 for Georgia.
The Sun Devils lost ignominiously to UNLV in overtime last week 23-20, a Rebel team which last year won only two games and which had been soundly beaten by Utah 42-21 the previous week. Last year, Georgia finished 0.9 rating points higher than Arizona State = 8 scoreboard points minus the Sun Devil home field advantage of 3 points = 5 scoreboard points. This season, the Bulldogs rank .5 points higher on comparative yards per play = 4.5 scoreboard points.

Georgia Tech (6.4, 3.7) is favored at home by 8 points over Mississippi State (4.3 , 3.8).
Our call: 24-14 for Georgia Tech
Mississippi State lost 3-2 last week against Auburn and, judging by the stats, this looks again like a defensive donnybrook, although Georgia Tech has a better offense than Auburn and a 19-16 win against Boston College under its belt, a team with a similar profile as Mississippi State - a weak offense and a strong defense. By last year's final SPRS rankings, the Yellow Jackets would be a 5 point favorite. By this year's performance on yards per play average, Georgia Tech has a two-yard advantage per play and should win by 18. We split the difference and call it by 10.

Houston (6.5, 6.3) is favored on the road by 6 points over Colorado State (5.3, 5.5).
Our call: 34-31 for Houston.
By last year's final SPRS stats, Houston would be favored by 6 points minus 3 points home advantage for Colorado State = 3 points. The yards per play average comparison gives a .4 rating edge to Houston = 3 to 4 points. We call it by 3.

Indiana (6.1, 3.7) is favored at home by 3 1/2 points over Ball State (7.6 , 5.4).
Our call: 35-27 for Indiana.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Indiana would be favored by 9 + 3= 12 points. Current yards per play averages would give the edge to Indiana by 2 + 3 = 5 points. We split the difference and call it by 8 points for Hoosiers, 35-27.

LSU (6.9 , 3.6) is favored on the road by 2 points over Auburn (5.0, 3.2).
Our call: 20-10 for LSU.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, LSU had a rating advantage of 1.6 and would be a 14 (1.6 x 9) minus 3 = 11 point favorite in this game. By current yards per play average, LSU holds a similar comparative 1.5 yards per play edge. We call it for LSU by 10.

Louisiana-Lafayette (5.0, 6.4) is favored at home by 2 1/2 points over Kent State (5.5 , 5.3).
Our call: 35-24 for Lafayette.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Lafayette would be favored by 8 + 3 = 11 points.

Maryland (5.6, 5.0) is favored at home by 21 1/2 points over Eastern Michigan (5.9, 5.1).
Our call: 44-14 for Maryland.
Maryland upset 23rd-ranked Cal 35-27 after losing to Middle Tennessee 24-14 the week before. By last year's final SPRS ratings, the Terrapins would be 27 + 3 = 30-point favorites. Based on the performance in past games this season, that looks like about the right spread.

Miami (FL) (4.5 , 4.1) is favored on the road by 3 points over Texas A&M (4.3 , 5.3).
Our call: 27-17 for Miami of Florida.
By last year's SPRS stats, the Aggies would be about a 7-point favorite in this game. But Texas A&M lost its season opener to Arkansas State and has been struggling under the new pro-style offense of head coach Mike Sherman, who replaced Dennis Franchione in November of 2007, so that it is difficult to know how long those problems will persist. You have to adapt your offense to the players you have, not vice versa (original tone, Larry Kehres, Mount Union). This game looks like a battle of two inept offenses against the defensive squadrons, which would give the edge to the Hurricanes by 13, minus the home field advantage of 3 points = 10 points.

Michigan State (5.3 , 5.6) is favored at home by 8 1/2 points over Notre Dame (4.9 , 5.1).
Our call: 27-24 for Michigan State.
By last year's SPRS stats, the Spartans would be 18 + 3 = 21 point favorites. This year, however, after the Fighting Irish win over Michigan 35-17 last week, the game looks much closer. Notre Dame recruiting has ranked in the top 10 since 2006, so this is going to come to bear on the Irish football fortunes sometime, but the team may not yet be far enough along to beat the Spartans yet. We call it for Michigan State 27-24 based primarily on the home field advantage.

Minnesota (5.8, 5.4) is favored at home by 6 1/2 points over Florida Atlantic (5.9, 5.6).
Our call: 37-28 for Florida Atlantic.
By last year's SPRS stats, Florida Atlantic would be a 21 - 3 = 18-point favorite. This year, Minnesota is on a roll and is undefeated against fairly weak opposition, whereas Florida Atlantic has played the likes of Texas. We do not know if Minnesota is far enough improved to beat Florida Atlantic and call it for the Owls by half the margin of last year's stats 37-28.

Mississippi (6.7, 4.5) is favored at home by 5 1/2 points over Vanderbilt (5.2 , 5.1).
Our call: 28-21 for Mississippi
By last year's SPRS stats, Vanderbilt rated 0.3 rating points better than Mississippi = 3 points, which would make this game even because of the Old Miss home field advantage. Except for a squeaker 2-point lost to Wake Forest, Houston Nutt is off to a good start at Mississippi, as the yardage stats also show, which give the Rebels 2.1 yard per play advantage = 19 points. Vandy may be undefeated, but we do not see them winning on the road against Ole Miss and call it 28-21 for Mississippi.

Missouri (8.3, 5.1)is favored at home by 33 1/2 points over Buffalo (6.2, 5.4).
Our call: 54-27 for Missouri
By last year's SPRS stats, the Tigers would be 43-point favorites and by this year's comparative yardage stats, 25-point favorites, whereas the Buffalo yards per play stats show the Bulls to be 10 points better this year than last year. The Missouri offense is so good, however, that the Buffalo offense will also have to move the ball against the Tigers relatively ordinary defense to stay close. We err on the side of Turner Gill and his team and call it 54-27 for Missouri. The Tigers have been criticized for running up the score in past games, so they may go a bit easier this game.

North Carolina (6.6, 5.2) is favored at home by 1 1/2 points over Virginia Tech (4.6, 5.5 ).
Our call: 38-26 for North Carolina.
The Virginia Tech offense is not much worse this year than last, but the defense is much weaker. North Carolina under head coach Butch Davis demolished Rutgers last week and looks like it has the offense to take it to the Hokies, who themselves have little to throw back at the Tar Heels. By last year's SPRS stats, Virginia Tech would be favored by 12. By comparative yards per play this season, North Carolina would be favored 24. by We split the difference and call it 38-26 for North Carolina.

Northwestern (5.7, 4.5) is favored at home by 11 points over Ohio (5.4, 4.8).
Our call: 28-20 for Northwestern.
By SPRS ratings last year, Northwestern would be favored by 14 points. By comparative yards per play this year, that advantage drops to 8 points. If we split the difference we arrive at the official line of about 11 points. the Bobcats led Ohio State at the half only to lose 26-14. Add to that losses to Wyoming and Central Michigan. Northwestern on the other hand is undefeated as the Wildcats have beaten Syracuse, Duke and Southern Illinois. Ohio seems to have some football talent, but perhaps not that grim determination to pull off the win in close games. We call it for Northwestern 28-20.

Ohio State (4.7, 4.1) is favored at home by 21 points over Troy (6.1, 2.8).
Our call: 21-14 for Ohio State
The Buckeyes should win this game, but where are they going to get the points with their lean offense? This game might be tougher than expected and we call it for Ohio State 21-14.

Oregon (6.7, 4.0) is favored at home by 12 1/2 points over Boise State (7.6, 3.7).
Our call: 48- 45 for Oregon.
The Ducks have been inconsistent, lucking out to win 32-26 against Purdue in two overtimes last week, whereas Bose State has been unimpressive against two weak opponents.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Oregon would be favored by 17 points. By yards per play comparison this season, Boise State would be favored by 8. If we split the difference we arrive at the 12.5 official line. We think this game should stay close and thus call it for Oregon 48-45.

Penn State (7.4, 3.8) is favored at home by 28 points over Temple (5.4, 5.0).
Our call: 46-14 for Penn State.
Temple lost a "Hail Mary" heartbreaker to Buffalo last week, whereas the Nittany Lions have been trampling their opponents. By last year's final SPRS ratings, Penn State would be a 38-point favorite. By this year's yards per play comparison, that advantage would be 32 points.

Pittsburgh (4.9, 4.4) is favored at home by 1 1/2 points over Iowa (6.3, 4.1).
Our call: 13-10 for Iowa.
By last year's final SPRS stats, Pitt would be favored by 8 + 3 = 11 points. By this year's yards per play comparison, Iowa would be favored by 15-3 = 12 points. The statistic that is singularly impressive is that the Hawkeyes have not given up a single touchdown in three games. Pitt has a weak offense, so this does not bide well for Panthers. We call it 13-10 for Iowa.

Purdue (5.4, 4.9) is favored at home by 10 1/2 points over Central Michigan (5.2, 6.9).
Our call: 39-21 for Purdue.
The Chippewa defense ranks 115th in the nation in terms of yards per play allowed on defense. By last year's SPRS ratings, the Boilermakers would be favored by 13. By comparison of yards per play this year, Purdue would be favored by 23. We split the difference and call it 39-21 for Purdue.

Rutgers (5.2, 6.5) is favored on the road by 5 points over Navy (7.3, 6.2).
Our call: 28-24 for Navy.
By last year's final SPRS ratings, Rutgers would be favored by about 20 points. However,
the heralded Rutgers defense (last year 4.9 yards per play) this year is in a shambles and ranks 108th in the nation by yards per play allowed. By comparative yards per play this year, Navy would be favored by 25. We split the difference and call it in favor of Navy by a field goal for reason of the home field advantage.

South Florida (6.4, 4.1) is favored on the road by 28 points over Florida International (3.0, 5.8).
Our call: 49-7 for South Florida.
For Florida International, it is one yard forward and two yards back, as their defense allows two yards per play to every one yard that their offense gains. Pursuant to last year's SPRS ratings, the Bulls would be favored over the Owls by 43. By comparative yards per play this season, this would be 42 points.

Southern Miss (5.5, 5.7) is favored at home by 9 1/2 points over Marshall (5.8, 5.5).
Our call: 31-28 for Southern Miss.
Last year these teams were rated almost equal and the same appears to be true this year, so that we call the difference as the home field advantage.

Stanford (4.1, 5.5) is favored at home by 9 1/2 points over San Jose State (5.3, 4.3).
Our call: 27-22 for Stanford
Last year Stanford was rated by SPRS at -3.3 and San Jose State at -3.5, which is about 2 scoring points, plus the home field advantage would make the Cardinal a 5 point favorite.

TCU (4.9, 3.2) is favored on the road by 24 points over Southern Methodist (5.9, 6.7).
Our call: 35-10 for TCU.
The final SPRS ratings from last year would make TCU a 32 point favorite minus the SMU home field advantage = 29 points. By comparative net average yards per play this season, TCU is 2.5 points better = 23 points minus 3 = 20 points. We split the difference since SMU is somewhat better this year than last.

Texas (6.4, 5.1) is favored at home by 30 1/2 points over Rice (5.8, 6.1).
Our call: 51-17 for Texas.
By SPRS final ratings from last year Texas would be favored by 52 points over Rice, but by comparative yards per play this season, the Longhorns would be favored only by 17. We split the difference at 34 points.
Tulane (4.0, 4.4) is favored at home by 6 points over Louisiana-Monroe (5.1, 6.2).
Our call: 31-24 for Tulane.
Tulane lost to Alabama but actually had the statistical advantage and last week nearly knocked off East Carolina. By SPRS final ratings from last year, Louisiana-Monroe would be favored by 9 points. The current yards per play statistic would favor Tulane by 10 points.

Tulsa (8.7, 5.9) is favored at home by 10 points over New Mexico (4.5, 4.3).
Our call: 40-14 for Tulsa
Last year the teams were virtually even by SPRS ratings. The Lobos have a good defense which should cut down the Tulsa points production, but we give the edge to Tulsa here by 2.6 points x 9 = 23 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 26 points.

UNLV (4.9, 5.9) is favored at home by 3 points over Iowa State (5.6, 5.5).
Our call: 27- 21 for Iowa State.
The final ranking by SPRS for these teams last year was 134th and 135th. UNLV upset Arizona State last week. By yards per play comparison, Iowa State should win by about 9 points minus the 3-point UNLV home field advantage = 6 points.

UTEP (4.8, 7.0) is favored at home by 6 points over New Mexico State (4.8, 8.1).
Our call: 48-37 for UTEP.
This is a battle of two of the worst defenses in the country. By last year's SPRS rating, UTEP would be a 9 point favorite. By current yards per play average, UTEP would be about a 13 point average. We call it for UTEP by 11.

Utah (5.6, 3.4) is favored on the road by 7 1/2 points over Air Force (5.0, 4.7).
Our call: 24-14 for Utah.
The SPRS final rankings for last year had Utah 40th and Air Force 41st. By current net yards per play, Utah would be favored by 20 points. We split the difference at 10 points.

Utah State (4.0, 6.5) is favored at home by 4 1/2 points over Idaho (5.2, 5.9).
Our call: 30-24 for Utah State.
Last year Idaho lost 24-19 at home. By last year's SPRS ratings, Utah State would be favored by 6 points over Idaho.

OTHER GAMES (yardage stats from final rankings 2007)

South Carolina State at Clemson
Our call: 39-10 for Clemson
SC State had a final SPRS rating last year of -3.2 and Clemson -0.3, a difference of 2.9 x 9 = 26 plus 3 points for home field advantage = 29 points.

Nicholls State (not rated) at Memphis (-4.3)
Our call: 40-13 for Memphis.
Nicholls State was not in the top 250 of the SPRS ratings last year and Memphis had a final SPRS rating last year of -4.3.

Tennessee Tech (not rated) at Western Michigan (-4.0)
Our call: 45-14 for Western Michigan

Wofford (-3.1) at South Carolina (-1.2)
Our call: 37-17 for South Carolina.

Massachusetts (-1.5) at Texas Tech (+0.2)
Our call: 42-24 for Texas Tech.

Sam Houston State (-4.2) at Kansas (+0.8)
Our call: 55-7 for Kansas.

Southeastern Louisiana (-5.8) at Louisiana Tech (-4.1)
Our call: 38-20 for Louisiana Tech.

Portland State (-5.2) at Washington State (-1.5)
Our call: 37-17 for Washington State

Murray State (not rated) at Western Kentucky (-3.3)
Our call: Western Kentucky 49-13 over Murray State.

Alabama State at UAB (-5.4)
Our call: UAB 41 Alabama State 27.

Northeastern (-4.9) at Syracuse (-4.3)
Our call: 34-24 for Syracuse.

Indiana State (not rated) at Northern Illinois (-5.1)
Our call: 34-13 for Northern Illinois

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 19, 2008 (boomark / email).