Law Students

Obama Pulling Away?

By otium cum dignitate

Recent polling in Iowa shows Obama making a late surge, and now leading all Democratic candidates with a 2 point lead over former front-runner Hillary Clinton.  Polling averages from RealClearPolitics shows the following Iowa breakdown:

Obama: 29.6 %
Clinton: 27.6 %
Edwards: 23.6 %

How did Hillary suddenly become so vulnerable just as Obama began his latest surge?  Part of the problem, I think, is timing.  Obama engaged in offensive attack-style politics on Hillary over a month ago when he questioned her inconsistent stance on New York Governor Elliot Spitzer's proposal to give illegal immigrants driver's licenses.  Because Hillary was the obvious front-runner at the time, all the Democratic (and Republican) candidates were happy to join Obama in a general Hillary bash-fest. 

But now, with the Iowa caucuses only two weeks away,  Obama has found himself with the lead,  partly because of a series of powerful speeches.  In a sign of desperation, Hillary's campaign has begun to engage in its own series of negative attacks on Obama, but now the timing is off.  Iowans don't appreciate negative politics this close to the caucuses.  A particular Clinton campaign blunder occurred when a Clinton aide criticized Obama's past admission of drug use.  Hillary later apologized for the remark, and the aide in question has since resigned. 

Obama certainly seems to have peaked at the perfect time.  But we've seen the candidates' fortunes in this race change rather dramatically.  It's still uncertain whether John Edwards may have enough support to surprise everyone with an 11th hour "closing argument."  And there is still the worry that Obama may be more style than substance.  As one writer recently remarked,

"Barack Obama is the George Clooney of the campaign, having to tamp down the adulation with a cool and cerebral presentation -- so cool he sometimes gets more applause upon entering a room than leaving it."

I think Hillary will rebound, and this race in Iowa will likely become a dead-heat between Obama, Hillary, and Edwards right up until January 3. 

Full post as published by otium cum dignitate on December 20, 2007 (boomark / email).