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NC is Must Win For Clinton

By wt

If I had to guess now, I'd say Clinton will win Indiana. Those intrade stocks I bragged about here are trading below 20%.

But Indiana doesn't do much for her. It gives her a reason to keep going. It gives her another infusion of cash. Nothing to sneeze at, sure. But Clinton is trying to win the nomination here, not just trying to buy time. Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have given her a lifeline. But, to complete the Who Wants to Be a Millionaire analogy, a lifeline is not the grand prize.

And to overcome the enormous delegate advantage Obama possesses, Clinton is going to need to shake up the race. She needs to show tenacity, doggedness, and convince the superdelegates she can beat McCain.

At the same time, she needs to scare superdelegates away from Obama -- she needs to show that Obama's decision to choose Wright as his pastor and to accept his radical viewpoints is an issue that will stick with moderate voters. A win in NC is a good start toward accomplishing these goals.

The good news for her is that the polls are narrowing to single digits. And Bill is doing heavy-duty work to turn out smaller, mostly white and middle-class communities.

The bad news is she's woefully behind still, and will probably lose. But she was definitely right when she said, forthrightly, that NC is a "game-changer."

Or rather, it's only a game-changer if she wins. If she loses, the game stays the same -- Obama wins the nomination.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on May 04, 2008 (boomark / email).