Home -> Law Blog Directory -> Law Students Blogs -> Harrell Blog

Law Students

: Harrell Blog

Will Edwards Drop Out?

By pharrell

There has been quite a bit of speculation about whether John Edwards will soon quit the presidential race, particularly after his dismal 4 percent showing in Nevada. As recently as last month the Edwards campaign explained that it had a "four state" strategy--try to win one of the four early states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, or, at the very least, do consistently well and generate some momentum going into Feb. 5. Once the results in Iowa and New Hampshire obliterated that strategy, Edwards began, perhaps, to think that he could play kingmaker in a close race that saw both Sens. Clinton and Obama fail to reach 50% of the vote; in any event, he's began vowing to stay in until the convention. Nevada casts doubt on even this, later, strategy: Edwards doesn't win delegates unless he hits 15% of the vote, so unless he markedly improves his showing this Saturday in South Carolina, he won't have any actual delegate clout.

So the question arises: Barring an unexpectedly strong showing in South Carolina, his birth state, does Edwards drop out after this weekend? My very tentative guess, recognizing that developments may well prove me wrong, is that yes, Edwards will drop out before Feb. 5--because his supporters will pressure him into it. Edwards, unlike, say, Denis Kucinich, has been supported by serious political players like unions, regular party donors, and well-regarded party operatives. These players believe in Edwards--they wouldn't have supported him otherwise--but they're also political pragmatists who would like the opportunity to bet on a winning horse (and hope to reap the political rewards that would come from supporting a victor). Practically speaking, this kind of supporter can't change his bet as long as Edwards formally remains in the race since it would be seen as embarrassing to ditch an active candidate. So their best option is to pressure Edwards to make a graceful exit so they can move on themselves. It's up to Edwards to figure out how long he can hold out against that pressure.

Full post as published by Harrell Blog on January 23, 2008 (boomark / email).